Dynamic Linkage between Aging, Mechanizations and Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Production

Lili Guo, Yuting Song, Shuang Zhao, Mengqian Tang, Yangli Guo, Mengying Su and Houjian Li
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Lili Guo: College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Yuting Song: College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Shuang Zhao: College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Mengqian Tang: College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Yangli Guo: School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China
Mengying Su: College of Economics, Guangxi Minzu University, Nanning 530006, China
Houjian Li: College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 10, 1-22

Abstract: The trend of aging is intensifying and has become a prominent population phenomenon worldwide. The aging population has an important impact on carbon emissions, but at present, there is little research on its ecological consequences, especially the relationship with agricultural carbon emissions. For a long time, China has been dominated by a scattered small-scale peasant economy. Currently, the aging population also means that the agricultural labor force will gradually become scarce, and the agricultural production will face reform. This article is intended to find the long-term impact of aging and mechanization on agricultural carbon emissions and construct a more comprehensive policy framework for sustainable development, hoping to contribute to environmental and ecological protection. The research sample in this article is from 2000 to 2019, covering 30 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) in China. We adopted methods and models including Fully Modified General Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic General Least Squares (DOLS), Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model, etc., and used the Granger causality test to determine the causal relationship between variables. Results show that aging is the Granger cause of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural mechanization. Agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural mechanization have a bidirectional causal relationship. In the short term, agricultural mechanization and aging both have made a great contribution to carbon dioxide emissions from agricultural production. However, in the long term, the impact of aging on agricultural mechanization is significantly negative. Therefore, it is generally beneficial to improve the environmental problems of agricultural production. Our research focuses on the latest background of population trends and global climate issues and finally provides suggestions and a theoretical basis for the formulation of government agricultural policies according to the research conclusions.

Keywords: aging; agricultural mechanization; agricultural carbon emissions; PVAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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