Simulation and Projection of Climate Extremes in China by a Set of Statistical Downscaled Data

Linxiao Wei, Lyuliu Liu, Cheng Jing, Yao Wu, Xiaoge Xin, Baogang Yang, Hongyu Tang, Yonghua Li, Yong Wang, Tianyu Zhang and Fen Zhang
Additional contact information
Linxiao Wei: Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China
Lyuliu Liu: National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081, China
Cheng Jing: School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Yao Wu: Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China
Xiaoge Xin: Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA (CEMC), Beijing 100081, China
Baogang Yang: Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China
Hongyu Tang: Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China
Yonghua Li: Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China
Yong Wang: Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China
Tianyu Zhang: Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China
Fen Zhang: Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 11, 1-15

Abstract: This study assesses present-day extreme climate changes over China by using a set of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) statistical downscaled data and raw models outputs. The downscaled data is produced by the adapted spatial disaggregation and equal distance cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) method at the resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° for the present day (1961–2014) and the future period (2015–2100) under the Shared Socioeconomic Path-way (SSP) 2-4.5 than SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. The results show that the downscaling method improves the spatial distributions of extreme climate events in China with higher spatial pattern correlations, Taylor Skill Scores and closer magnitudes no matter single model or multi model ensemble (MME). In the future projections, large inter-model variability between the downscaled models still exists, particular for maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5). The downscaled MME projects that total precipitation (PTOT) and RX5, will increase with time, especially for the northwest China. The projected heavy precipitation days (R20) also increase in the future. The region of significant increase in R20 locates in the south of river Yangtze. Maxi-mum annual temperature (TXX) and percentage of warm days (TX90p) are projected to increase across the whole country with larger magnitude over the west China. Projected changes of minimum annual temperature (TNN) over the northeastern China is the most significant area. The higher of the emission scenario, the more significant of extreme climates. This reveals that the spatial distribution of extreme climate events will become more uneven in the future.

Keywords: evaluation; projection; CMIP6; downscaling; extreme climate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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