Optimizing Strategies for Improving Mental Health in Victoria, Australia during the COVID-19 Era: A System Dynamics Modelling Study

Catherine Vacher, Nicholas Ho, Adam Skinner, Jo Robinson, Louise Freebairn, Grace Yeeun Lee, Frank Iorfino, Ante Prodan, Yun Ju C. Song, Jo-An Occhipinti and Ian B. Hickie
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Catherine Vacher: Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Nicholas Ho: Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Adam Skinner: Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Jo Robinson: Orygen, Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia
Louise Freebairn: Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Grace Yeeun Lee: Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Frank Iorfino: Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Ante Prodan: Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Yun Ju C. Song: Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Jo-An Occhipinti: Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Ian B. Hickie: Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 11, 1-14

Abstract: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the mental health of populations and highlighted the limitations of mental health care systems. As the trajectory of the pandemic and the economic recovery are still uncertain, decision tools are needed to help evaluate the best interventions to improve mental health outcomes. We developed a system dynamics model that captures causal relationships among population, demographics, post-secondary education, health services, COVID-19 impact, and mental health outcomes. The study was conducted in the Australian state of Victoria. The model was calibrated using historical data and was stratified by age group and by geographic remoteness. Findings demonstrate that the most effective intervention combination includes economic, social, and health sector initiatives. Assertive post-suicide attempt care is the most impactful health sector intervention, but delaying implementation reduces the potency of its impact. Some evidence-based interventions, such as population-wide community awareness campaigns, are projected to worsen mental health outcomes when implemented on their own. Systems modelling offers a powerful decision-support tool to test alternative strategies for improving mental health outcomes in the Victorian context.

Keywords: mental health; decision analysis; systems modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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