Trends of the Prevalence of Pre-gestational Diabetes in 2030 and 2050 in Belgrade Cohort

Stefan Dugalic, Milos Petronijevic, Brankica Vasiljevic, Jovana Todorovic, Dejana Stanisavljevic, Aleksandra Jotic, Ljiljana Lukic, Tanja Milicic, Nebojsa Lalić, Katarina Lalic, Milica Stoiljkovic, Zorica Terzic-Supic, Tamara Stanisavljevic, Aleksandar Stefanovic, Katarina Stefanovic, Svetlana Vrzic-Petronijevic, Maja Macura, Igor Pantic, Pavle Piperac, Marija Jovanovic, Radmila Cerovic, Sinisa Djurasevic, Sandra Babic, Sonja Perkovic-Kepeci and Miroslava Gojnic
Additional contact information
Stefan Dugalic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Milos Petronijevic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Brankica Vasiljevic: Maternity and Child Health Service, NMC Royal Hospital DIP, Dubai Hospital, Dubai P.O. Box 7832, United Arab Emirates
Jovana Todorovic: Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Social Medicine, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Dejana Stanisavljevic: Faculty of Medicine, Institute for Medical Statistics and Informatics, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Aleksandra Jotic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolic Diseases, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Ljiljana Lukic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolic Diseases, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Tanja Milicic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolic Diseases, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Nebojsa Lalić: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolic Diseases, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Katarina Lalic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolic Diseases, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Milica Stoiljkovic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolic Diseases, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Zorica Terzic-Supic: Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Social Medicine, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Tamara Stanisavljevic: Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Aleksandar Stefanovic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Katarina Stefanovic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Svetlana Vrzic-Petronijevic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Maja Macura: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Igor Pantic: Faculty of Medicine, Institute for Medical Physiology, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Pavle Piperac: Department for Humanities, University of Belgrade, Faculty of Medicine, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Marija Jovanovic: General Hospital Bor, 19210 Bor, Serbia
Radmila Cerovic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Sinisa Djurasevic: Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Sandra Babic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Sonja Perkovic-Kepeci: General Hospital Pancevo, 26000 Pancevo, Serbia
Miroslava Gojnic: Faculty of Medicine, Clinic for Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 11, 1-9

Abstract: The aim of this study was to analyze the trends in diabetes in pregnancy in Belgrade, Serbia for the period of the past decade and forecast the number of women with pre-gestational diabetes for the years 2030 and 2050. The study included the data on all pregnant women with diabetes from the registry of the deliveries in Belgrade, by the City Institute of Public Health of Belgrade, Serbia for the period between 2010 and 2020 and the published data on the deliveries on the territory of Belgrade. During the examined period the total number of live births in Belgrade was 196,987, and the prevalence of diabetes in pregnancy was 3.4%, with the total prevalence of pre-gestational diabetes of 0.7% and overall prevalence of GDM of 2.7%. The average age of women in our study was significantly lower in 2010 compared to 2020. The forecasted prevalence of pre-gestational diabetes among all pregnant women for 2030 is 2% and 4% for 2050 in our cohort. Our study showed that the prevalence of pre-gestational diabetes has increased both among all pregnant women and among women with diabetes in pregnancy in the past decade in Belgrade, Serbia and that it is expected to increase further in the next decades and to further double by 2050.

Keywords: forecasting; prevalence; pregnancy; diabetes; pre-gestational diabetes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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