A Novel Approach on Deep Learning—Based Decision Support System Applying Multiple Output LSTM-Autoencoder: Focusing on Identifying Variations by PHSMs’ Effect over COVID-19 Pandemic

Yong-Ju Jang, Min-Seung Kim, Chan-Ho Lee, Ji-Hye Choi, Jeong-Hee Lee, Sun-Hong Lee and Tae-Eung Sung
Additional contact information
Yong-Ju Jang: Department of Computer Science, Graduate School, Yonsei University, Wonju 26493, Korea
Min-Seung Kim: Department of Computer Science, Graduate School, Yonsei University, Wonju 26493, Korea
Chan-Ho Lee: Department of Computer Science, Graduate School, Yonsei University, Wonju 26493, Korea
Ji-Hye Choi: Department of Computer Science, Graduate School, Yonsei University, Wonju 26493, Korea
Jeong-Hee Lee: Department of Computer Science, Graduate School, Yonsei University, Wonju 26493, Korea
Sun-Hong Lee: Department of Computer Science, Graduate School, Yonsei University, Wonju 26493, Korea
Tae-Eung Sung: Division of Software, Yonsei University, Wonju 26493, Korea

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 11, 1-22

Abstract: Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the continued emergence of major variant viruses has caused enormous damage worldwide by generating social and economic ripple effects, and the importance of PHSMs (Public Health and Social Measures) is being highlighted to cope with this severe situation. Accordingly, there has also been an increase in research related to a decision support system based on simulation approaches used as a basis for PHSMs. However, previous studies showed limitations impeding utilization as a decision support system for policy establishment and implementation, such as the failure to reflect changes in the effectiveness of PHSMs and the restriction to short-term forecasts. Therefore, this study proposes an LSTM-Autoencoder-based decision support system for establishing and implementing PHSMs. To overcome the limitations of existing studies, the proposed decision support system used a methodology for predicting the number of daily confirmed cases over multiple periods based on multiple output strategies and a methodology for rapidly identifying varies in policy effects based on anomaly detection. It was confirmed that the proposed decision support system demonstrated excellent performance compared to models used for time series analysis such as statistical models and deep learning models. In addition, we endeavored to increase the usability of the proposed decision support system by suggesting a transfer learning-based methodology that can efficiently reflect variations in policy effects. Finally, the decision support system proposed in this study provides a methodology that provides multi-period forecasts, identifying variations in policy effects, and efficiently reflects the effects of variation policies. It was intended to provide reasonable and realistic information for the establishment and implementation of PHSMs and, through this, to yield information expected to be highly useful, which had not been provided in the decision support systems presented in previous studies.

Keywords: decision support system; public health and social measures (PHSMs); deep learning; LSTM-Autoencoder; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/11/6763/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/11/6763/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:11:p:6763-:d:829708

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().