Spatiotemporal Distribution and Evolution of Digestive Tract Cancer Cases in Lujiang County, China since 2012

Kang Ma, Yuesheng Lin, Xiaopeng Zhang, Fengman Fang, Yong Zhang, Jiajia Li, Youru Yao, Lei Ge, Huarong Tan and Fei Wang
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Kang Ma: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Yuesheng Lin: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Xiaopeng Zhang: Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230022, China
Fengman Fang: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Yong Zhang: Department of Geological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA
Jiajia Li: Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230022, China
Youru Yao: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Lei Ge: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Huarong Tan: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Fei Wang: Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 12, 1-13

Abstract: This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution and evolution of digestive tract cancer (DTC) in Lujiang County, China by using the geographic information system technology. Results of this study are expected to provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control of DTC. The data on DTC cases in Lujiang County, China, were downloaded from the Data Center of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Hefei, Anhui Province, China, while the demographic data were sourced from the demographic department in China. Systematic statistical analyses, including the spatial empirical Bayes smoothing, spatial autocorrelation, hotspot statistics, and Kulldorff’s retrospective space-time scan, were used to identify the spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of DTC. GM(1,1) and standard deviation ellipses were then applied to predict the future evolution of the spatial pattern of the DTC cases in Lujiang County. The results showed that DTC in Lujiang County had obvious spatiotemporal clustering. The spatial distribution of DTC cases increases gradually from east to west in the county in a stepwise pattern. The peak of DTC cases occurred in 2012–2013, and the high-case spatial clusters were located mainly in the northwest of Lujiang County. At the 99% confidence interval, two spatiotemporal clusters were identified. From 2012 to 2017, the cases of DTC in Lujiang County gradually shifted to the high-incidence area in the northwest, and the spatial distribution range experienced a process of “dispersion-clustering”. The cases of DTC in Lujiang County will continue to move to the northwest from 2018 to 2025, and the predicted spatial clustering tends to be more obvious.

Keywords: digestive tract cancer; incidence; spatiotemporal distribution; clustering; evolution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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