How Effective Is a Traffic Control Policy in Blocking the Spread of COVID-19? A Case Study of Changsha, China

Wang Xiang, Li Chen, Qunjie Peng, Bing Wang and Xiaobing Liu
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Wang Xiang: Key Laboratory of Special Environment Road Engineering of Hunan Province, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China
Li Chen: Key Laboratory of Special Environment Road Engineering of Hunan Province, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China
Qunjie Peng: Shenzhen Transportation Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518003, China
Bing Wang: Changsha Planning & Design Survey Research Institute, Changsha 410007, China
Xiaobing Liu: Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 13, 1-17

Abstract: (1) Background: COVID-19 is still affecting people’s daily lives. In the past two years of epidemic control, a traffic control policy has been an important way to block the spread of the epidemic. (2) Objectives: To delve into the blocking effects of different traffic control policies on COVID-19 transmission. (3) Methods: Based on the classical SIR model, this paper designs and improves the coefficient of the infectious rate, and it builds a quantitative SEIR model that considers the infectivity of the exposed for traffic control policies. Taking Changsha, a typical city of epidemic prevention and control, as a study case, this paper simulates the epidemic trends under three traffic control policies adopted in Changsha: home quarantine, road traffic control, and public transport suspension. Meanwhile, to explore the time sensitivity of all traffic control policies, this paper sets four distinct scenarios where the traffic control policies were implemented at the first medical case, delayed by 3, 5, and 7 days, respectively. (4) Results: The implementation of the traffic control policies has decreased the peak value of the population of the infective in Changsha by 66.03%, and it has delayed the peak period by 58 days; with the home-quarantine policy, the road traffic control policy, and the public transport suspension policy decreasing the peak value of the population of the infective by 56.81%, 39.72%, and 45.31% and delaying the peak period by 31, 18, and 21 days, respectively; in the four scenarios where the traffic control policies had been implemented at the first medical case, delayed by 3, 5, and 7 days, respectively, the variations of both the peak value and the peak period timespan of confirmed cases under the home-quarantine policy would have been greater than under the road traffic control and the public transport suspension policies. (5) Conclusions: The implementation of traffic control policies is significantly effective in blocking the epidemic across the city of Changsha. The home-quarantine policy has the highest time sensitivity: the earlier this policy is implemented, the more significant its blocking effect on the spread of the epidemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; urban epidemic control; traffic control policy; infectious disease model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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