Short-Term Effects of PM 10, NO 2, SO 2 and O 3 on Cardio-Respiratory Mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, 2006–2015

Temitope Christina Adebayo-Ojo, Janine Wichmann, Oluwaseyi Olalekan Arowosegbe, Nicole Probst-Hensch, Christian Schindler and Nino Künzli
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Temitope Christina Adebayo-Ojo: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, Allschwil, 4123 Basel, Switzerland
Janine Wichmann: Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Health Systems and Public Health, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa
Oluwaseyi Olalekan Arowosegbe: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, Allschwil, 4123 Basel, Switzerland
Nicole Probst-Hensch: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, Allschwil, 4123 Basel, Switzerland
Christian Schindler: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, Allschwil, 4123 Basel, Switzerland
Nino Künzli: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Kreuzstrasse 2, Allschwil, 4123 Basel, Switzerland

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 13, 1-20

Abstract: Background: The health effect of air pollution is rarely quantified in Africa, and this is evident in global systematic reviews and multi-city studies which only includes South Africa. Methods: A time-series analysis was conducted on daily mortality (cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD)) and air pollution from 2006–2015 for the city of Cape Town. We fitted single- and multi-pollutant models to test the independent effects of particulate matter (PM 10 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ) from co-pollutants. Results: daily average concentrations per interquartile range (IQR) increase of 16.4 µg/m 3 PM 10 , 10.7 µg/m 3 NO 2 , 6 µg/m 3 SO 2 and 15.6 µg/m 3 O 3 lag 0–1 were positively associated with CVD, with an increased risk of 2.4% (95% CI: 0.9–3.9%), 2.2 (95% CI: 0.4–4.1%), 1.4% (95% CI: 0–2.8%) and 2.5% (95% CI: 0.2–4.8%), respectively. For RD, only NO 2 showed a significant positive association with a 4.5% (95% CI: 1.4–7.6%) increase per IQR. In multi-pollutant models, associations of NO 2 with RD remained unchanged when adjusted for PM 10 and SO 2 but was weakened for O 3 . In CVD, O 3 estimates were insensitive to other pollutants showing an increased risk. Interestingly, CVD and RD lag structures of PM 10 , showed significant acute effect with evidence of mortality displacement. Conclusion: The findings suggest that air pollution is associated with mortality, and exposure to PM 10 advances the death of frail population.

Keywords: multi-pollutant; air pollution; mortality; harvesting; South Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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