Mathematical Modeling of the Evolution of Absenteeism in a University Hospital over 12 Years

Luc Vialatte, Bruno Pereira, Arnaud Guillin, Sophie Miallaret, Julien Steven Baker, Rémi Colin-Chevalier, Anne-Françoise Yao-Lafourcade, Nourddine Azzaoui, Maëlys Clinchamps, Jean-Baptiste Bouillon-Minois and Frédéric Dutheil
Additional contact information
Luc Vialatte: Occupational and Environmental Medicine, CHU Clermont-Ferrand, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Bruno Pereira: Biostatistics Unit, CHU Clermont-Ferrand, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Arnaud Guillin: LMBP, Mathematics, Université Clermont Auvergne, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Sophie Miallaret: Cikaba, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Julien Steven Baker: Centre for Health and Exercise Science Research, Department of Sport, Physical Education and Health, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong
Rémi Colin-Chevalier: CNRS, LaPSCo, Physiological and Psychosocial Stress, CHU Clermont-Ferrand, WittyFit, Université Clermont Auvergne, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Anne-Françoise Yao-Lafourcade: LMBP, Mathematics, Université Clermont Auvergne, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Nourddine Azzaoui: LMBP, Mathematics, Université Clermont Auvergne, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Maëlys Clinchamps: CNRS, LaPSCo, Physiological and Psychosocial Stress, CHU Clermont-Ferrand, WittyFit, Université Clermont Auvergne, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Jean-Baptiste Bouillon-Minois: CNRS, LaPSCo, Physiological and Psychosocial Stress, CHU Clermont-Ferrand, WittyFit, Université Clermont Auvergne, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Frédéric Dutheil: CNRS, LaPSCo, Physiological and Psychosocial Stress, CHU Clermont-Ferrand, WittyFit, Université Clermont Auvergne, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 14, 1-16

Abstract: Increased absenteeism in health care institutions is a major problem, both economically and health related. Our objectives were to understand the general evolution of absenteeism in a university hospital from 2007 to 2019 and to analyze the professional and sociodemographic factors influencing this issue. An initial exploratory analysis was performed to understand the factors that most influence absences. The data were then transformed into time series to analyze the evolution of absences over time. We performed a temporal principal components analysis (PCA) of the absence proportions to group the factors. We then created profiles with contributions from each variable. We could then observe the curves of these profiles globally but also compare the profiles by period. Finally, a predictive analysis was performed on the data using a VAR model. Over the 13 years of follow-up, there were 1,729,097 absences for 14,443 different workers (73.8% women; 74.6% caregivers). Overall, the number of absences increased logarithmically. The variables contributing most to the typical profile of the highest proportions of absences were having a youngest child between 4 and 10 years old (6.44% of contribution), being aged between 40 and 50 years old (5.47%), being aged between 30 and 40 years old (5.32%), working in the administrative field (4.88%), being tenured (4.87%), being a parent (4.85%), being in a coupled relationship (4.69%), having a child over the age of 11 (4.36%), and being separated (4.29%). The forecasts predict a stagnation in the proportion of absences for the profiles of the most absent factors over the next 5 years including annual peaks. During this study, we looked at the sociodemographic and occupational factors that led to high levels of absenteeism. Being aware of these factors allows health companies to act to reduce absenteeism, which represents real financial and public health threats for hospitals.

Keywords: absenteeism; hospital; sociodemographic factors; occupational factors; statistical model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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