Estimation and Potential Analysis of Land Population Carrying Capacity in Shanghai Metropolis

Hefeng Wang, Yuan Cao, Xiaohu Wu, Ao Zhao and Yi Xie
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Hefeng Wang: School of Mining and Geomatics Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
Yuan Cao: School of Mining and Geomatics Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
Xiaohu Wu: School of Mining and Geomatics Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
Ao Zhao: School of Mining and Geomatics Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
Yi Xie: School of Mining and Geomatics Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 14, 1-20

Abstract: It is of great practical significance to understand the current situation of urban land carrying capacity, explore its potential space, and continuously improve the economic adaptability and resilience and population carrying capacity of megacities. Based on the guiding principle of territorial spatial division and the concept of moderate-scale resilient cities, combined with GIS technology, this study aims to divide land spaces into three types and construct different index systems to evaluate the land carrying capacity of Shanghai in different spaces. Furthermore, we propose different schemes of estimating subspace land population carrying capacity, and the carrying potential of land population is analysed as well. The acquired results demonstrate three key points. Firstly, the total land population capacity of Shanghai is estimated at 25,476.61–32,047.27 people, with urban land space being the most dominant for the city’s population carrying capacity. Furthermore, the inner suburbs carry the largest population, and the urban centre carries a larger population density than other areas. Secondly, there are significant spatial differences in land population carrying potential. Compared with the demographic data from 2017, Shanghai still has a population carrying potential of 1293.30–7863.97 people and a suitable population carrying potential of 4578.64 people. The population of the urban centre is near the upper limit of the estimated population carrying capacity, and the suburbs, especially the outer suburbs, have large population carrying potential. Thirdly, the estimation method adopted in this study can effectively reveal the spatial differences in population carrying capacity and the potential of different land spaces and different regions in Shanghai, with the estimation results being highly credible. The results will provide references for the improvement of the multi-scenario population planning strategy in Shanghai, as well as enrich the research span and methods currently employed in land carrying capacity.

Keywords: urban land carrying capacity; population estimation; land use space; potential analysis; Shanghai Metropolis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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