Development of a Clinical Prediction Rule for Adverse Events in Multimorbid Patients in Emergency and Hospitalisation

Marta Morales-Puerto, María Ruiz-Díaz, Marta Aranda-Gallardo, José Miguel Morales-Asencio, Purificación Alcalá-Gutiérrez, José Antonio Rodríguez-Montalvo, Álvaro León-Campos, Silvia García-Mayor and José Carlos Canca-Sánchez
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Marta Morales-Puerto: Hospital Costa del Sol, Servicio Andaluz de Salud, Autovía A7, Km, 187 Marbella, 29603 Málaga, Spain
María Ruiz-Díaz: Hospital Costa del Sol, Servicio Andaluz de Salud, Autovía A7, Km, 187 Marbella, 29603 Málaga, Spain
Marta Aranda-Gallardo: Hospital Costa del Sol, Servicio Andaluz de Salud, Autovía A7, Km, 187 Marbella, 29603 Málaga, Spain
José Miguel Morales-Asencio: Department of Nursing, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad de Málaga, C/Arquitecto Francisco Peñalosa 3, 29017 Málaga, Spain
Purificación Alcalá-Gutiérrez: Hospital Costa del Sol, Servicio Andaluz de Salud, Autovía A7, Km, 187 Marbella, 29603 Málaga, Spain
José Antonio Rodríguez-Montalvo: Hospital Costa del Sol, Servicio Andaluz de Salud, Autovía A7, Km, 187 Marbella, 29603 Málaga, Spain
Álvaro León-Campos: Department of Nursing, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad de Málaga, C/Arquitecto Francisco Peñalosa 3, 29017 Málaga, Spain
Silvia García-Mayor: Department of Nursing, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad de Málaga, C/Arquitecto Francisco Peñalosa 3, 29017 Málaga, Spain
José Carlos Canca-Sánchez: Hospital Costa del Sol, Servicio Andaluz de Salud, Autovía A7, Km, 187 Marbella, 29603 Málaga, Spain

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 14, 1-14

Abstract: (1) Background: There is currently a global consensus that the quality of comprehensive care for acutely hospitalised elderly people should include addressing functionality and mobility, cognitive status, prevention of pressure ulcers, urinary incontinence, falls and delirium, as well as pain control and medication-related problems. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule for multimorbid patients admitted to an acute care hospital unit for any of the five adverse events included in our vulnerability pentad: falls, pressure ulcers, urinary incontinence, pain and delirium. (2) Methods: Longitudinal analytical clinimetric study, with two cohorts. The study population will consist of multimorbid patients hospitalised for acute care, referred from the Emergency Room. A clinical prediction rule will be proposed, incorporating predictive factors of these five adverse outcomes described. This study has received funding, awarded in November 2020 (PI-0107-2020), and was approved in October 2019 by the Research Ethics Committee ″Costa del Sol″. (3) Conclusions: Preventing adverse events in hospitalised patients is particularly important for those with multimorbidity. By applying a clinical prediction rule to detect specific risks, an estimate can be obtained of their probability of occurrence.

Keywords: clinical prediction rule; clinical safety; adverse events; multimorbidity; validation study; nursing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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