The Impact of 51 Risk Factors on Life Expectancy in Canada: Findings from a New Risk Prediction Model Based on Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study

Jacek A. Kopec, Eric C. Sayre, Benajir Shams, Linda C. Li, Hui Xie, Lynne M. Feehan and John M. Esdaile
Additional contact information
Jacek A. Kopec: School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada
Eric C. Sayre: Arthritis Research Canada, Vancouver, BC V5Y 3P2, Canada
Benajir Shams: Fraser Health Authority, Surrey, BC V3T 0H1, Canada
Linda C. Li: Arthritis Research Canada, Vancouver, BC V5Y 3P2, Canada
Hui Xie: Arthritis Research Canada, Vancouver, BC V5Y 3P2, Canada
Lynne M. Feehan: Department of Physical Therapy, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada
John M. Esdaile: Arthritis Research Canada, Vancouver, BC V5Y 3P2, Canada

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 15, 1-21

Abstract: The aims of this study were (1) to develop a comprehensive risk-of-death and life expectancy (LE) model and (2) to provide data on the effects of multiple risk factors on LE. We used data for Canada from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. To create period life tables for males and females, we obtained age/sex-specific deaths rates for 270 diseases, population distributions for 51 risk factors, and relative risk functions for all disease-exposure pairs. We computed LE gains from eliminating each factor, LE values for different levels of exposure to each factor, and LE gains from simultaneous reductions in multiple risk factors at various ages. If all risk factors were eliminated, LE in Canada would increase by 6.26 years for males and 5.05 for females. The greatest benefit would come from eliminating smoking in males (2.45 years) and high blood pressure in females (1.42 years). For most risk factors, their dose-response relationships with LE were non-linear and depended on the presence of other factors. In individuals with high levels of risk, eliminating or reducing exposure to multiple factors could improve LE by several years, even at a relatively advanced age.

Keywords: life expectancy; risk factors; prediction models; Global Burden of Disease Study (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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