Multi-Scale Influencing Factors and Prediction Analysis: Dongxing Port–City Relationship

Bin Wu, Guanhai Gu, Wenzhu Zhang, Liguo Zhang, Rucheng Lu, Caiping Pang, Jixian Huang and Hongxin Li
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Bin Wu: School of Natural Resources and Surveying and Mapping, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530011, China
Guanhai Gu: School of Natural Resources and Surveying and Mapping, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530011, China
Wenzhu Zhang: School of Natural Resources and Surveying and Mapping, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530011, China
Liguo Zhang: School of Natural Resources and Surveying and Mapping, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530011, China
Rucheng Lu: School of Natural Resources and Surveying and Mapping, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530011, China
Caiping Pang: School of Natural Resources and Surveying and Mapping, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530011, China
Jixian Huang: School of Natural Resources and Surveying and Mapping, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530011, China
Hongxin Li: School of Natural Resources and Surveying and Mapping, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530011, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 15, 1-14

Abstract: This study calculates the dynamic concentration index, explores the evolution of the relationship between the Dongxing port and city, and predicts its future. The results indicate that the relationship between the port and city has three development stages, namely the low-level balanced development stage (2001–2008), the port development stage (2009–2014), and the urban development stage (2015–2019). Based on the country (China and Vietnam), province (Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region), district (Fangchenggang City), county (Dongxing City), and individual (resident) levels, a multi-scale index system of influencing factors was developed. The impulse response function model analyzed the influential factors in the relationship between port and city development. The influence is as follows: country (China) > country (Vietnam) > county > individual > city > province. Finally, the relationship between port and city development was predicted using an auto-regression differential moving average model. It is expected that Dongxing City will gradually transition from a port- and city-dominated stage to a new stage of coordinated development. Thus, by improving the proportion of the secondary and tertiary industries, managing the population density, introducing foreign capital, enhancing the innovation level, and improving the traffic facilities, high-quality development in Dongxing port–city can be achieved.

Keywords: port–city relationship; improved dynamic concentration index; multi-scale factors; dynamic simulation; port–city development; Dongxing City (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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