Simulation of Land Use Pattern Based on Land Ecological Security: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China

Lesong Zhao, Guangsheng Liu, Chunlong Xian, Jiaqi Nie, Yao Xiao, Zhigang Zhou, Xiting Li and Hongmei Wang
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Lesong Zhao: School of Public Administration, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Guangsheng Liu: School of Public Administration, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Chunlong Xian: School of Public Administration, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Jiaqi Nie: School of Public Administration, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Yao Xiao: School of Public Administration, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Zhigang Zhou: School of Public Administration, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Xiting Li: School of Public Administration, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Hongmei Wang: School of Public Administration, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 15, 1-20

Abstract: The process of rapid urbanization has intensified the conversion of different land use types, resulting in a substantial loss of ecological land and ecological security being threatened. In the context of China’s vigorous advocacy of an ecological civilization, it is important to explore future land use patterns under ecological security constraints to promote sustainable development. The insufficient consideration of land ecological security in existing land use pattern simulation studies makes it difficult to effectively promote improvement in the ecological security level. Therefore, we developed a land use simulation framework that integrates land ecological security. Taking the sustainable development of land ecosystems as the core, the land ecological security index (LESI) and ecological zoning (EZ) were determined by the pressure–state–response (PSR) model and the catastrophe progression method (CPM). Natural development (ND) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios were then constructed taking the LESI and EZ into consideration. The CA–Markov model was used to simulate the land use pattern of Guangzhou for 2030 under the two scenarios. The results showed that (1) the study area was divided into four categories: ecological core zone, ecological buffer zone, ecological optimization zone, and urban development zone, with area shares of 37.53%, 31.14%, 16.96%, and 14.37%, respectively. (2) In both scenarios, the construction land around the towns showed outward expansion; compared with the ND scenario, the construction land in the EP scenario decreased by 369.10 km 2 , and the woodland, grassland, and farmland areas increased by 337.04, 20.80, and 10.51 km 2 , respectively, which significantly improved the ecological security level. (3) In the EP scenario, the construction land in the ecological core zone, ecological buffer zone, and ecological optimization zone decreased by 85.49, 114.78, and 178.81 km 2 , respectively, and no new construction land was added in the ecological core zone, making the land use pattern of the EP scenario more reasonable. The results of the study have confirmed that the land use pattern simulation framework integrating land ecological security can effectively predict land use patterns in different future scenarios. This study can provide suggestions and guidance for managers to use in formulating ecological protection policies and preparing territorial spatial planning.

Keywords: land use pattern; land ecological security; scenario simulation; CA–Markov model; Guangzhou (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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