Bayesian Modeling of COVID-19 to Classify the Infection and Death Rates in a Specific Duration: The Case of Algerian Provinces

Hani Amir Aouissi, Ahmed Hamimes, Mostefa Ababsa, Lavinia Bianco, Christian Napoli, Feriel Kheira Kebaili, Andrey E. Krauklis, Hafid Bouzekri and Kuldeep Dhama
Additional contact information
Hani Amir Aouissi: Scientific and Technical Research Center on Arid Regions (CRSTRA), Biskra 07000, Algeria
Ahmed Hamimes: Faculty of Medicine, University of Constantine 3, Constantine 25000, Algeria
Mostefa Ababsa: Scientific and Technical Research Center on Arid Regions (CRSTRA), Biskra 07000, Algeria
Lavinia Bianco: Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, “Sapienza” University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Rome, Italy
Christian Napoli: Department of Medical Surgical Sciences and Translational Medicine, “Sapienza” University of Rome, Via di Grottarossa 1035/1039, 00189 Rome, Italy
Feriel Kheira Kebaili: Laboratoire de Recherche et d’Etude en Aménagement et Urbanisme (LREAU), Université des Sciences et de la Technologie (USTHB), Algiers 16000, Algeria
Andrey E. Krauklis: Institute for Mechanics of Materials, University of Latvia, Jelgavas Street 3, LV-1004 Riga, Latvia
Hafid Bouzekri: Department of Forest Management, Higher National School of Forests, Khenchela 40000, Algeria
Kuldeep Dhama: Division of Pathology, ICAR—Indian Veterinary Research Institute, Izatnagar, Bareilly 243122, India

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 15, 1-18

Abstract: COVID-19 causes acute respiratory illness in humans. The direct consequence of the spread of the virus is the need to find appropriate and effective solutions to reduce its spread. Similar to other countries, the pandemic has spread in Algeria, with noticeable variation in mortality and infection rates between regions. We aimed to estimate the proportion of people who died or became infected with SARS-CoV-2 in each provinces using a Bayesian approach. The estimation parameters were determined using a binomial distribution along with an a priori distribution, and the results had a high degree of accuracy. The Bayesian model was applied during the third wave (1 January–15 August 2021), in all Algerian’s provinces. For spatial analysis of duration, geographical maps were used. Our findings show that Tissemsilt, Ain Defla, Illizi, El Taref, and Ghardaia (Mean = 0.001) are the least affected provinces in terms of COVID-19 mortality. The results also indicate that Tizi Ouzou (Mean = 0.0694), Boumerdes (Mean = 0.0520), Annaba (Mean = 0.0483), Tipaza (Mean = 0.0524), and Tebessa (Mean = 0.0264) are more susceptible to infection, as they were ranked in terms of the level of corona infections among the 48 provinces of the country. Their susceptibility seems mainly due to the population density in these provinces. Additionally, it was observed that northeast Algeria, where the population is concentrated, has the highest infection rate. Factors affecting mortality due to COVID-19 do not necessarily depend on the spread of the pandemic. The proposed Bayesian model resulted in being useful for monitoring the pandemic to estimate and compare the risks between provinces. This statistical inference can provide a reasonable basis for describing future pandemics in other world geographical areas.

Keywords: Bayesian approach; binomial model; COVID-19; Algeria; mortality and infection rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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