Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution and Driving Factors of Brucellosis in China, 2003–2019

Li Xu () and Yijia Deng
Additional contact information
Li Xu: Department of Statistics, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510006, China
Yijia Deng: Department of Statistics, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510006, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 16, 1-15

Abstract: Brucellosis is a prevalent zoonotic disease worldwide. However, the spatiotemporal patterns evolution and its driving factors of Brucellosis have not been well explored. In this study, spatiotemporal scan statistics were applied to describe the spatiotemporal pattern of evolution in Brucellosis from 2003 to 2019 in mainland China, and GeoDetector analysis was further conducted to explore the driving effects of environmental, meteorological, and socioeconomic factors. We identified a distinct seasonal pattern for Brucellosis, with a peak in May and lowest incidence between September and December. High-risk clusters were first observed in the northwestern pastoral areas and later expanded to the southern urban areas. The spatiotemporal heterogeneity was mainly explained by total SO 2 emissions, average annual temperature, sheep output, and consumption of meat per capita with explanatory powers of 45.38%, 44.60%, 40.76%, and 30.46% respectively. However, the explanatory power changed over time. Specifically, the explanatory power of average annual temperature tended to decrease over time, while consumption of meat per capita and total output of animal husbandry tended to increase. The most favorable conditions for the spread of Brucellosis include 0.66–0.70 million tons of SO 2 emissions, 9.54–11.68 °C of average annual temperature, 63.28–72.40 million heads of sheep output, and 16.81–20.58 kg consumption of meat per capita. Brucellosis remains more prevalent in traditional pastoral areas in Northwest China, with the tendency of spreading from pastoral to non-pastoral, and rural to urban, areas. Total SO 2 emission, average annual temperature, sheep output, and consumption of meat per capita dominated the spatial heterogeneity of Brucellosis with changes in explanatory power over time.

Keywords: Brucellosis; spatiotemporal pattern; spatial heterogeneity; spatiotemporal scan; GeoDetector (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/16/10082/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/16/10082/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:16:p:10082-:d:888931

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().