Comparing Atrial-Fibrillation Validated Rapid Scoring Systems in the Long-Term Mortality Prediction in Patients Referred for Elective Coronary Angiography: A Subanalysis of the Białystok Coronary Project

Ewelina Rogalska, Anna Kurasz (), Łukasz Kuźma, Hanna Bachórzewska-Gajewska, Sławomir Dobrzycki, Marek Koziński, Bożena Sobkowicz and Anna Tomaszuk-Kazberuk
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Ewelina Rogalska: Department of Cardiology, Medical University of Białystok, 24A Skłodowskiej-Curie, 15-276 Białystok, Poland
Anna Kurasz: Department of Invasive Cardiology, Medical University of Białystok, 24A Skłodowskiej-Curie, 15-276 Białystok, Poland
Łukasz Kuźma: Department of Invasive Cardiology, Medical University of Białystok, 24A Skłodowskiej-Curie, 15-276 Białystok, Poland
Hanna Bachórzewska-Gajewska: Department of Invasive Cardiology, Medical University of Białystok, 24A Skłodowskiej-Curie, 15-276 Białystok, Poland
Sławomir Dobrzycki: Department of Invasive Cardiology, Medical University of Białystok, 24A Skłodowskiej-Curie, 15-276 Białystok, Poland
Marek Koziński: Department of Cardiology and Internal Medicine, Medical University of Gdańsk, 9b Powstania Styczniowego, 81-519 Gdynia, Poland
Bożena Sobkowicz: Department of Cardiology, Medical University of Białystok, 24A Skłodowskiej-Curie, 15-276 Białystok, Poland
Anna Tomaszuk-Kazberuk: Department of Cardiology, Medical University of Białystok, 24A Skłodowskiej-Curie, 15-276 Białystok, Poland

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 16, 1-11

Abstract: Rapid scoring systems validated in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) may be useful beyond their original purpose. Our aim was to assess the utility of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc, HAS–BLED, and 2MACE scores in predicting long-term mortality in the population of the Białystok Coronary Project, including AF patients. The initial study population consisted of 7409 consecutive patients admitted for elective coronary angiography between 2007 and 2016. The study endpoint was all-cause mortality, which occurred in 1244 (16.8%) patients during the follow-up, ranging from 1283 to 3059 days (median 2029 days). We noticed substantially increased all-cause mortality in patients with higher values of all compared scores. The accuracy of the scores in predicting all-cause mortality was also assessed using the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. The greatest predictive value for mortality was recorded for the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score in the overall study population (area under curve [AUC] = 0.665; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 0.645–0.681). We observed that the 2MACE score (AUC = 0.656; 95%CI 0.619–0.681), but not the HAS–BLED score, had similar predictive value to the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score for all-cause mortality in the overall study population. In AF patients, all scores did not differ in all-cause mortality prediction. Additionally, we found that study participants with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score ≥3 vs. <3 had a 3-fold increased risk of long-term all-cause mortality (odds ratio 3.05; 95%CI 2.6–3.6). Our study indicates that clinical scores initially validated in AF patients may be useful for predicting mortality in a broader population (e.g., in patients referred for elective coronary angiography). According to our findings, all compared scores have a moderate predictive value. However, in our study, the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and 2MACE scores outperformed the HAS–BLED score in terms of the long-term all-cause mortality prediction.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation; mortality; CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc; HAS–BLED; 2MACE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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