Analysis of Rheumatic Heart Disease Mortality in the Chinese Population: A JoinPoint and Age–Period–Cohort Study

Jiameng Cui, Xinru Guo, Xin Yuan, Hao Wu, Ge Yu, Biao Li and Changgui Kou ()
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Jiameng Cui: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Jilin University, No. 1163 Xinmin Street, Changchun 130021, China
Xinru Guo: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Jilin University, No. 1163 Xinmin Street, Changchun 130021, China
Xin Yuan: Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Jilin University, No. 1163 Xinmin Street, Changchun 130021, China
Hao Wu: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Jilin University, No. 1163 Xinmin Street, Changchun 130021, China
Ge Yu: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Jilin University, No. 1163 Xinmin Street, Changchun 130021, China
Biao Li: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Jilin University, No. 1163 Xinmin Street, Changchun 130021, China
Changgui Kou: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Jilin University, No. 1163 Xinmin Street, Changchun 130021, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 16, 1-11

Abstract: (1) Background: We aimed to analyze rheumatic heart disease (RHD) mortality trends in China’s urban and rural areas and to determine the roles of age, period, and cohort effects. (2) Methods: Based on mortality data extracted from the China Health Statistics Yearbook, we calculated the crude mortality rate of RHD. Age–adjusted rates were computed by the direct method using the 2020 census as the standard population. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were determined by the JoinPoint regression model. The age–period–cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort. (3) Results: From 2006 to 2020, the general trend in RHD standardized mortality declined. The RHD mortality rate was higher in rural than in urban areas and among females than males. The elderly (over 60 years old) were at high risk for RHD deaths in China. The age effect increased with age, and the cohort effect showed a declining trend as chronology grew, but the period effect was not significant. (4) Conclusions: China has achieved great success in RHD, but RHD mortality may increase with age. Compared with the period effect, age and cohort effects dominated the risk of RHD deaths.

Keywords: rheumatic heart disease; mortality; JoinPoint regression model; age–period–cohort model; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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