Collateral Impact of COVID-19 Prevention Measures on Re-Emergence of Scarlet Fever and Pertussis in Mainland China and Hong Kong China

Yiran He, Chenjin Ma, Xiangyu Guo, Jinren Pan, Wangli Xu () and Shelan Liu ()
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Yiran He: Center for Applied Statistics, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Chenjin Ma: College of Statistics and Data Science, Faculty of Science, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Xiangyu Guo: Center for Applied Statistics, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Jinren Pan: Department of Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China
Wangli Xu: Center for Applied Statistics, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Shelan Liu: Department of Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 16, 1-15

Abstract: The incidence of scarlet fever and pertussis has increased significantly in China in recent years. During the COVID-19 pandemic, stringent non-pharmaceutical intervention measures were widely adopted to contain the spread of the virus, which may also have essential collateral impacts on other infectious diseases, such as scarlet fever and pertussis. We compared the incidence data of scarlet fever and pertussis in Mainland China and Hong Kong from 2004 to 2021 before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that the incidence of both diseases decreased significantly in 2020–2021 compared to the after-re-emergence stage in these two locations. Specifically, in 2020, scarlet fever decreased by 73.13% and pertussis by 76.63% in Mainland China, and 83.70% and 76.10%, respectively, in Hong Kong. In the absence of COVID-19, the predicted incidence of both diseases was much higher than the actual incidence in Mainland China and Hong Kong in 2020–2021. This study demonstrates that non-pharmaceutical measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic can partially reduce scarlet fever and pertussis re-emergence in Mainland China and Hong Kong.

Keywords: scarlet fever; pertussis; COVID-19; Mainland China; Hong Kong (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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