Peaking Global and G20 Countries’ CO 2 Emissions under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways

Yuan Kong, Chao Feng () and Liyang Guo ()
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Yuan Kong: School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China
Chao Feng: School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China
Liyang Guo: School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 17, 1-19

Abstract: Mitigating climate change requires long-term global efforts. The aim of this study is to simulate the possible paths of CO 2 emissions in G20 countries and the world from 2020 to 2050, by using the STIRPAT model and SSP scenarios with different constraints (SSP baseline, SSP-3.4). The results show that: (1) the world’s CO 2 emissions cannot peak in the SSP baseline scenarios, but can peak in the SSP-3.4 scenarios through four paths other than the high fossil energy consumption path; (2) for G20 countries, in the SSP baseline scenarios, 13 countries such as China, the United States, and the United Kingdom can achieve the peak, while six countries such as Argentina, India, and Saudi Arabia cannot. In the SSP-3.4 scenarios, Saudi Arabia cannot achieve the peak, while other countries can achieve the peak, and most of them are likely to achieve significant CO 2 emission reductions by 2050; (3) climate goals have a crowding-out effect on other sustainable development goals, with less impact on developed countries and a greater impact on developing countries; and (4) the optimization of the energy structure and a low energy intensity can greatly advance the peak time of CO 2 emissions.

Keywords: carbon peak; STIRPAT; SSP; crowding-out effect; energy structure; energy intensity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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