An Integrated Spatial Autoregressive Model for Analyzing and Simulating Urban Spatial Growth in a Garden City, China

Bingkui Qiu, Min Zhou (), Yang Qiu, Shuhan Liu, Guoliang Ou, Chaonan Ma, Jiating Tu and Siqi Li
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Bingkui Qiu: Department of Tourism Management, Jin Zhong University, Jinzhong 033619, China
Min Zhou: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Yang Qiu: Department of Economics, University College of London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
Shuhan Liu: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Guoliang Ou: School of Construction and Environmental Engineering, Shenzhen Polytechnic, Shenzhen 518055, China
Chaonan Ma: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Jiating Tu: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Siqi Li: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 18, 1-16

Abstract: In the past, the research on models related to urban land-use change and prediction was greatly complicated by the high precision of models. When planning some garden cities, we should explore a more applicable, specific, and effective macro approach than the community-level one. In this study, a model consisting of spatial autoregressive (SAR), cellular automata (CA), and Markov chains is constructed. One It can well-consider the spatial autocorrelation and integrate the advantages of CA into a geographical simulation to find the driving forces behind the expansion of a garden city. This framework has been applied to the urban planning and development of Chengdu, China. The research results show that the application of the SAR model shows the development trend in the southeast region and the needs to optimize the central region and protect the western region as an ecological reserve. The descriptive statistics and the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals are reliable. The influence of spatial variables from strong to weak is distance to water, slope, population density, GDP, distance to main roads, distance to railways, and distance to the center of the county (district). Taking 2005 as the initial year, the land-use situation in 2015 was simulated and compared with the actual land-use situation. It seems that the Kappa coefficient of the construction-land simulation is 0.7634, with high accuracy. Therefore, the land use in 2025 and 2035 is further simulated, which provides a reference for garden cities to formulate a reasonable urban space development strategy.

Keywords: urban spatial growth simulation; GIS; cellular automata; spatial autoregressive; Chengdu (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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