Risk Transmission Mechanism of Domestic Cluster Epidemic Caused by Overseas Imported Cases: Multiple Case Studies Based on Grounded Theory

Xuefeng Li, Hui Jiang () and Xiaoyu Liang
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Xuefeng Li: School of Engineering Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Hui Jiang: School of Engineering Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Xiaoyu Liang: School of Engineering Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 18, 1-19

Abstract: The continued severity of the global epidemic situation has led to a rising risk of imported cases in China, and domestic cluster epidemic events caused by imported cases have occurred from time to time, repeatedly causing nation-wide disruption. To deeply explain this phenomenon, this study adopted the grounded theory method, using the 5·21 Guangzhou COVID-19 outbreak and 7·20 Nanjing COVID-19 outbreak as examples to study the risk transmission mechanism of domestic cluster epidemic caused by overseas imported cases. The study found that the risk factors for the phenomenon mainly include the following seven aspects: external protection, operations and supervision, international and domestic environment, contaminated objects, virus characteristics, management efficacy, and individual factors. These risk factors together constitute the “detonator”, “risk source”, “risk carrier,” and “risk amplifier” in the risk transmission process. In addition, this study also found that the transmission mechanism of domestic clusters caused by imported cases is a process of secondary risk amplification. The increase in risk carriers leads to a surge in secondary risks compared with the first, which leads to the outbreak of domestic clusters. Finally, based on the characteristics of the transmission mechanism and risk transmission components, this study provides some suggestions on risk mitigation for public departments to optimize China’s epidemic prevention policies.

Keywords: domestic cluster epidemic; risk factors; risk transmission; grounded theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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