Decoding the Geography of Natural TBEV Microfoci in Germany: A Geostatistical Approach Based on Land-Use Patterns and Climatological Conditions

Johannes P. Borde (), Rüdiger Glaser, Klaus Braun, Nils Riach, Rafael Hologa, Klaus Kaier, Lidia Chitimia-Dobler and Gerhard Dobler
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Johannes P. Borde: Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine II, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg Medical Center, D-79106 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
Rüdiger Glaser: Institute of Environmental Social Sciences and Geography, University of Freiburg, Schreiberstr. 20, D-79098 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
Klaus Braun: Institute of Environmental Social Sciences and Geography, University of Freiburg, Schreiberstr. 20, D-79098 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
Nils Riach: Institute of Environmental Social Sciences and Geography, University of Freiburg, Schreiberstr. 20, D-79098 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
Rafael Hologa: Institute of Environmental Social Sciences and Geography, University of Freiburg, Schreiberstr. 20, D-79098 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
Klaus Kaier: Medical Center, Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, University of Freiburg, Stefan-Meier-Straße 26, D-79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
Lidia Chitimia-Dobler: German National Reference Laboratory for TBEV, Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstraße 11, D-80937 München, Germany
Gerhard Dobler: German National Reference Laboratory for TBEV, Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstraße 11, D-80937 München, Germany

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 18, 1-20

Abstract: Background: Tickborne-encephalitis (TBE) is a potentially life-threating neurological disease that is mainly transmitted by ticks. The goal of the present study is to analyze the potential uniform environmental patterns of the identified TBEV microfoci in Germany. The results are used to calculate probabilities for the present distribution of TBEV microfoci in Germany based on a geostatistical model. Methods: We aim to consider the specification of environmental characteristics of locations of TBEV microfoci detected in Germany using open access epidemiological, geographical and climatological data sources. We use a two-step geostatistical approach, where in a first step, the characteristics of a broad set of environmental variables between the 56 TBEV microfoci and a control or comparator set of 3575 sampling points covering Germany are compared using Fisher’s Exact Test. In the second step, we select the most important variables, which are then used in a MaxEnt distribution model to calculate a high resolution (400 × 400 m) probability map for the presence of TBEV covering the entire area of Germany. Results: The findings from the MaxEnt prediction model indicate that multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27.0%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the highest contribution to our model. These two variables are followed by four additional variables with a lower, but still important, explanatory influence: Land cover classes (19.6%), multi annual minimum air temperature (14.9%), multi annual sunshine duration (9.0%), and distance to coniferous and mixed forest border (7.0%). Conclusions : Our findings are based on defined TBEV microfoci with known histories of infection and the repeated confirmation of the virus in the last years, resulting in an in-depth high-resolution model/map of TBEV microfoci in Germany. Multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the most explanatory power in our model. The results may be used to tailor specific regional preventive measures and investigations.

Keywords: MaxEnt; prediction model; TBE; tick-borne encephalitis; TBEV; microfocus; Ixodes ricinus; geostatistical approach; environmental variables; climatological data; land-use patterns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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