Comparative Analysis of Composite Mortality Prediction Scores in Intensive Care Burn Patients

Doha Obed (), Mustafa Salim, Nadjib Dastagir, Samuel Knoedler, Khaled Dastagir, Adriana C. Panayi and Peter M. Vogt
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Doha Obed: Department of Plastic, Aesthetic, Hand and Reconstructive Surgery, Hannover Medical School, 30625 Hannover, Germany
Mustafa Salim: Department of Human Genetics, Hannover Medical School, 30625 Hannover, Germany
Nadjib Dastagir: Department of Plastic, Aesthetic, Hand and Reconstructive Surgery, Hannover Medical School, 30625 Hannover, Germany
Samuel Knoedler: Department for Plastic Surgery and Hand Surgery, Klinikum Rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, 81675 Munich, Germany
Khaled Dastagir: Department of Plastic, Aesthetic, Hand and Reconstructive Surgery, Hannover Medical School, 30625 Hannover, Germany
Adriana C. Panayi: Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02215, USA
Peter M. Vogt: Department of Plastic, Aesthetic, Hand and Reconstructive Surgery, Hannover Medical School, 30625 Hannover, Germany

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 19, 1-10

Abstract: Multiple outcome scoring models have been used in predicting mortality in burn patients. In this study, we compared the accuracy of five established models in predicting outcomes in burn patients admitted to the intensive care unit and assessed risk factors associated with mortality. Intensive care burn patients admitted between March 2007 and December 2020 with total body surface area (TBSA) affected ≥ 10% were analyzed. Multivariate analysis was conducted to examine variables associated with mortality. The ABSI, Ryan, BOBI, revised Baux and BUMP scores were analyzed by receiver operating characteristics. A total of 617 patients were included. Morality was 14.4%, with non-survivors being significantly older, male, and having experienced domestic burns. Multivariate analysis identified age, TBSA, full-thickness burns and renal insufficiency as independent mortality predictors. The BUMP score presented the highest mortality prognostication rate, followed by ABSI, revised Baux, BOBI and Ryan scores. BUMP, ABSI and revised Baux scores displayed AUC values exceeding 90%, indicating excellent prognostic capabilities. The BUMP score showed the highest accuracy of predicting mortality in intensive care burn patients and outperformed the most commonly used ABSI score in our cohort. The older models displayed adequate predictive performance and accuracy compared with the newest model.

Keywords: burn intensive care; ABSI score; BAUX; BOBI; BUMP score; burn mortality; burn survival (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:19:p:12321-:d:927544

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