The Chaotic Behavior of the Spread of Infection during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

Nabin Sapkota, Atsuo Murata, Waldemar Karwowski, Mohammad Reza Davahli (), Krzysztof Fiok, Awad M. Aljuaid, Tadeusz Marek and Tareq Ahram
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Nabin Sapkota: Department of Engineering Technology, Northwestern State University of Louisiana, Natchitoches, LA 71459, USA
Atsuo Murata: Department of Intelligent Mechanical Systems, Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University, Okayama 700-8530, Japan
Waldemar Karwowski: Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA
Mohammad Reza Davahli: Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA
Krzysztof Fiok: Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA
Awad M. Aljuaid: Industrial Engineering Department, Taif University, Taif 26571, Saudi Arabia
Tadeusz Marek: Department of Cognitive Neuroscience and Neuroergonomics, Institute of Applied Psychology, Jagiellonian University, 31-007 Kraków, Poland
Tareq Ahram: Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 19, 1-16

Abstract: In December 2019, China reported a new virus identified as SARS-CoV-2, causing COVID-19, which soon spread to other countries and led to a global pandemic. Although many countries imposed strict actions to control the spread of the virus, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in unprecedented economic and social consequences in 2020 and early 2021. To understand the dynamics of the spread of the virus, we evaluated its chaotic behavior in Japan. A 0–1 test was applied to the time-series data of daily COVID-19 cases from January 26, 2020 to August 5, 2021 (3 days before the end of the Tokyo Olympic Games). Additionally, the influence of hosting the Olympic Games in Tokyo was assessed in data including the post-Olympic period until October 8, 2021. Even with these extended time period data, although the time-series data for the daily infections across Japan were not found to be chaotic, more than 76.6% and 55.3% of the prefectures in Japan showed chaotic behavior in the pre- and post-Olympic Games periods, respectively. Notably, Tokyo and Kanagawa, the two most populous cities in Japan, did not show chaotic behavior in their time-series data of daily COVID-19 confirmed cases. Overall, the prefectures with the largest population centers showed non-chaotic behavior, whereas the prefectures with smaller populations showed chaotic behavior. This phenomenon was observed in both of the analyzed time periods (pre- and post-Olympic Games); therefore, more attention should be paid to prefectures with smaller populations, in which controlling and preventing the current pandemic is more difficult.

Keywords: chaotic behavior; COVID-19 pandemic; the spread of infections; 0–1 test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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