A Risk Treatment Strategy Model for Oil Pipeline Accidents Based on a Bayesian Decision Network Model

Chao Zhang, Wan Wang, Fengjiao Xu, Yong Chen and Tingxin Qin ()
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Chao Zhang: China National Institute of Standardization, Beijing 100191, China
Wan Wang: China National Institute of Standardization, Beijing 100191, China
Fengjiao Xu: China National Institute of Standardization, Beijing 100191, China
Yong Chen: Shenzhen Urban Public Safety and Technology Institute, Shenzhen 518000, China
Tingxin Qin: China National Institute of Standardization, Beijing 100191, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 20, 1-16

Abstract: Risk treatment is an effective way to reduce the risk of oil pipeline accidents. Many risk analysis and treatment strategies and models have been established based on the event tree method, bow-tie method, Bayesian network method, and other methods. Considering the characteristics of the current models, a risk treatment strategy model for oil pipeline accidents based on Bayesian decision network (BDNs) is proposed in this paper. First, the quantitative analysis method used in the Event-Evolution-Bayesian model (EEB model) is used for risk analysis. Second, the consequence weights and initial event likelihoods are added to the risk analysis model, and the integrated risk is obtained. Third, the risk treatment strategy model is established to achieve acceptable risk with optimal resources. The risk treatment options are added to the Bayesian network (BN) risk analysis model as the decision nodes and utility nodes. In this approach, the BN risk analysis model can be transformed into a risk treatment model based on BDNs. Compared to other models, this model can not only identify the risk factors comprehensively and illustrate the incident evolution process clearly, but also can support diverse risk treatment strategies for specific cases, such as to reduce the integrated risk to meet acceptable criterion or to balance the benefit and cost of an initiative. Furthermore, the risk treatment strategy can be updated as the risk context changes.

Keywords: oil pipeline accident; risk analysis; risk evaluation; risk treatment strategy; Bayesian network; Bayesian decision network model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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