On the Quantum and Tempo of Women First Marriages in China

Jingyi Dan (), Nong Zhu and Li Mei
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Jingyi Dan: Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Nong Zhu: INRS—Urbanization Culture Society Research Centre, Montreal, QC H2X 1E3, Canada
Li Mei: Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 20, 1-10

Abstract: The total first marriage rate (TFMR) of Chinese women shows a downward trend in fluctuations from 1970 to 2016, but it is affected by the tempo distortion caused by changes in the mean age at first marriage. Thus, we compare the total first marriage rate (TFMR) and tempo-adjusted period proportion ever married (PPEM*) to estimate the extent to which the TFMR is affected by tempo effects. We also decompose the women’s TFMR change into its quantum and tempo components from 1970 to 2016 to analyze how much of the changes in TFMR are due to the quantum changes and how much of it is caused by tempo effects. The results show that the tempo effects have had a persistent influence on the period TFMR of Chinese women from 1970 to 2016. The recent decline in the TFMR in Chinese women is mainly due to the first marriage delay, not signaling a retreat from universal marriage.

Keywords: total first marriage rate; tempo-adjusted period proportion ever married; quantum change; tempo effects; decomposition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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