Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Violent Crime

Lin Liu, Jiayu Chang, Dongping Long () and Heng Liu
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Lin Liu: Center of Geoinformatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Jiayu Chang: Center of Geoinformatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Dongping Long: Center of Geoinformatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Heng Liu: Center of Geoinformatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 23, 1-10

Abstract: Existing research suggests that COVID-19 lockdowns tend to contribute to a decrease in overall urban crime rates. Most studies have compared pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to lockdown periods in Western cities. Few have touched on the fine variations during lockdowns. Equally rare are intracity studies conducted in China. This study tested the relationship between violent crime and COVID-19 lockdown policies in ZG City in southern China. The distance from the isolation location to the nearest violent crime site, called “the nearest crime distance”, is a key variable in this study. Kernel density mapping and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test are used to compare the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to the lockdown period. Panel logistic regression is used to test the fine variations among different stages during the lockdown. The result found an overall decline in violent crime during the lockdown and a bounce-back post-lockdown. Violent crime moved away from the isolation location during the lockdown. This outward spread continued for the first two months after the lifting of the lockdown, suggesting a lasting effect of the lockdown policy. During the lockdown, weekly changes in COVID-19 risk ratings at the district level in ZG City also affected changes in the nearest crime distance. In particular, an increase in the risk rating increased that distance, and a drop in the risk rating decreased that distance. These findings add new results to the literature and could have policy implications for joint crime and pandemic prevention and control.

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic risk rating; COVID-19 outbreak prevention and control policy; crime change; violent crime (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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