Association between Global Monkeypox Cases and Meteorological Factors

Md. Aminul Islam (), Sarawut Sangkham, Ananda Tiwari, Meysam Vadiati, Mohammad Nayeem Hasan, Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor, Jubayer Mumin, Prosun Bhattacharya () and Samendra P. Sherchan
Additional contact information
Md. Aminul Islam: Advanced Molecular Lab, Department of Microbiology, President Abdul Hamid Medical College, Karimganj 2310, Bangladesh
Sarawut Sangkham: Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of Phayao, Muang District, Phayao 56000, Thailand
Ananda Tiwari: Department of Food Hygiene and Environmental Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
Meysam Vadiati: Hubert H. Humphrey Fellowship Program, Global Affairs, University of California, Davis, 10 College Park, Davis, CA 95616, USA
Mohammad Nayeem Hasan: Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science & Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor: Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science & Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
Jubayer Mumin: Platform of Medical and Dental Society, Dhaka 1214, Bangladesh
Prosun Bhattacharya: COVID-19 Research, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Teknikringen 10B, SE 10044 Stockholm, Sweden
Samendra P. Sherchan: Department of Biology, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD 11428, USA

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 23, 1-13

Abstract: The emergence of an outbreak of Monkeypox disease (MPXD) is caused by a contagious zoonotic Monkeypox virus (MPXV) that has spread globally. Yet, there is no study investigating the effect of climatic changes on MPXV transmission. Thus, studies on the changing epidemiology, evolving nature of the virus, and ecological niche are highly paramount. Determination of the role of potential meteorological drivers including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, dew point, wind speed, and surface pressure is beneficial to understand the MPXD outbreak. This study examines the changes in MPXV cases over time while assessing the meteorological characteristics that could impact these disparities from the onset of the global outbreak. To conduct this data-based research, several well-accepted statistical techniques including Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Automatic forecasting time-series model (Prophet), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variables (ARIMAX) were applied to delineate the correlation of the meteorological factors on global daily Monkeypox cases. Data on MPXV cases including affected countries spanning from 6 May 2022, to 9 November 2022, from global databases and meteorological data were used to evaluate the developed models. According to the ARIMAX model, the results showed that temperature, relative humidity, and surface pressure have a positive impact [(51.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): −274.55 to 377.68), (17.32, 95% CI: −83.71 to 118.35) and (23.42, 95% CI: −9.90 to 56.75), respectively] on MPXV cases. In addition, dew/frost point, precipitation, and wind speed show a significant negative impact on MPXD cases. The Prophet model showed a significant correlation with rising MPXD cases, although the trend predicts peak values while the overall trend increases. This underscores the importance of immediate and appropriate preventive measures (timely preparedness and proactive control strategies) with utmost priority against MPXD including awareness-raising programs, the discovery, and formulation of effective vaccine candidate(s), prophylaxis and therapeutic regimes, and management strategies.

Keywords: Monkeypox disease (MPXD); monkeypox virus (MPXV); monkeypox (MPX); daily cases; zoonotic disease; meteorological factors; mathematical models; temperature and dew point; treatment and vaccine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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