Suit the Remedy to the Case—The Effectiveness of COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Prevention and Control Policies Based on Individual Going-Out Behavior

Siqing Shan, Feng Zhao (), Menghan Sun, Yinong Li and Yangzi Yang
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Siqing Shan: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
Feng Zhao: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
Menghan Sun: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
Yinong Li: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
Yangzi Yang: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 23, 1-18

Abstract: Nonpharmaceutical policies for epidemic prevention and control have been extensively used since the outbreak of COVID-19. Policies ultimately work by limiting individual behavior. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of policies by combining macro nonpharmaceutical policies with micro-individual going-out behavior. For different going out scenarios triggered by individual physiological safety needs, friendship needs, and family needs, this paper categorizes policies with significant differences in intensity, parameterizes the key contents of the policies, and simulates and analyzes the effectiveness of the policies in different going-out scenarios with simulation methods. The empirical results show that enhancing policy intensity can effectively improve policy effectiveness. Among different types of policies, restricting the times of going out is more effective. Further, the effect of controlling going out based on physiological safety needs is better than other needs. We also evaluate the policy effectiveness of 26 global countries or regions. The results show that the policy effectiveness varies among 26 countries or regions. The quantifiable reference provided by this study facilitates decision makers to establish policy and practices for epidemic prevention and control.

Keywords: nonpharmaceutical epidemic prevention and control policies; policy intensity; policy evaluation; going-out needs; simulation method; SEIR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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