Study on Dynamic Probability and Quantitative Risk Calculation Method of Domino Accident in Pool Fire in Chemical Storage Tank Area

Mingqing Su, Lijun Wei (), Shennan Zhou, Guoliang Yang, Rujun Wang, Yingquan Duo, Sining Chen, Mingliang Sun, Jiahang Li and Xiangbei Kong
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Mingqing Su: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Lijun Wei: China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China
Shennan Zhou: State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology University, Beijing 100081, China
Guoliang Yang: China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China
Rujun Wang: China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China
Yingquan Duo: China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China
Sining Chen: China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China
Mingliang Sun: China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China
Jiahang Li: China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China
Xiangbei Kong: China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 24, 1-18

Abstract: The domino event caused by fire is one of the common accidents in hydrocarbon storage tank farms, which further expands the severity and scope of the accident. Due to the different failure sequence of the storage tanks in a domino accident, the radiant heat generated by the failed storage tank to the target tank is different. Based on the influence of this synergistic effect, this study combined the Monte Carlo algorithm and FSEM, and proposed a fast real-time probability calculation method for a fire domino accident in a storage tank area, for the first time. This method uses the Monte Carlo algorithm to simulate all accident scenarios, and obtains the evolution of multiple escalation fire domino accidents under the synergistic effect according to FSEM, and then calculates the real-time failure probability and risk. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the accident propagation path, this method avoids the problem of a large amount of calculation, and is conducive to the rapid and effective analysis of the fire risk in a storage tank area and the formulation of corresponding risk reduction measures. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method were proved by a case study.

Keywords: domino fire accident; Monte Carlo simulation; synergic effect; chemical storage tank; judgment criterion; quantitative risk analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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