Does Climate Change Increase Crop Water Requirements of Winter Wheat and Summer Maize in the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River Basin?

Kun Jia, Wei Zhang, Bingyan Xie, Xitong Xue, Feng Zhang and Dongrui Han ()
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Kun Jia: School of Management Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China
Wei Zhang: School of Management Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China
Bingyan Xie: School of Management Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China
Xitong Xue: School of Management Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China
Feng Zhang: School of Management Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China
Dongrui Han: Institute of Agricultural Information and Economics, Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Jinan 250100, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 24, 1-12

Abstract: With increasing water resources stress under climate change, it is of great importance to deeply understand the spatio-temporal variation of crop water requirements and their response to climate change for achieving better water resources management and grain production. However, the quantitative evaluation of climate change impacts on crop water requirements and the identification of determining factors should be further explored to reveal the influencing mechanism and actual effects thoroughly. In this study, the water requirements of winter wheat and summer maize from 1981 to 2019 in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin were estimated based on the Penman–Monteith model and crop coefficient method using daily meteorological data. Combined with trends test, sensitivity and contribution analysis, the impacts of different meteorological factors on crop water requirement variation were explored, and the dominant factors were then identified. The results indicated that the temperature increased significantly (a significance level of 0.05 was considered), whereas the sunshine duration, relative humidity and wind speed decreased significantly from 1981 to 2019 in the study area. The total water requirements of winter wheat and summer maize presented a significant decreasing trend (−1.36 mm/a) from 1981 to 2019 with a multi-year average value of 936.7 mm. The crop water requirements of winter wheat was higher than that of summer maize, with multi-year average values of 546.6 mm and 390.1 mm, respectively. In terms of spatial distribution patterns, the crop water requirement in the north was generally higher than that in the south. The water requirements of winter wheat and summer maize were most sensitive to wind speed, and were less sensitive to the minimum temperature and relative humidity. Wind speed was the leading factor of crop water requirement variation with the highest contribution rate of 116.26% among the considered meteorological factors. The results of this study will provide important support for strengthening the capacity to cope with climate change and realizing sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.

Keywords: crop water requirements; spatial and temporal variation; climate change; sensitivity analysis; attribution analysis; Yellow River Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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