Modeling and Simulation of Crowd Pre-Evacuation Decision-Making in Complex Traffic Environments

Zhihong Li (), Shiyao Qiu, Xiaoyu Wang and Li Zhao
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Zhihong Li: Department of Transportation, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, No. 1 Zhanlanguan Rd., Beijing 100044, China
Shiyao Qiu: Department of Transportation, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, No. 1 Zhanlanguan Rd., Beijing 100044, China
Xiaoyu Wang: Department of Transportation, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, No. 1 Zhanlanguan Rd., Beijing 100044, China
Li Zhao: China Academy of Urban Planning Design, No. 9 Sanlihe Rd., Beijing 100044, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 24, 1-16

Abstract: Human movements in complex traffic environments have been successfully simulated by various models. It is crucial to improve crowd safety and urban resilience. However, few studies focus on reproducing human behavior and predicting escape reaction time in the initial judgement stage in complex traffic environments. In this paper, a pedestrian pre-evacuation decision-making model considering pedestrian heterogeneity is proposed for complex environments. Firstly, the model takes different obvious factors into account, including cognition, information, experience, habits, stress, and decision-making ability. Then, according to the preference of the escapees, the personnel decision-making in each stage is divided into two types: stay and escape. Finally, multiple influencing factors are selected to construct the regression equation for prediction of the escape opportunity. The results show that: (1) Choices of escape opportunity are divided into several stages, which are affected by the pedestrian individual risk tolerance, risk categories strength, distance from danger, and reaction of the neighborhood crowd. (2) There are many important factors indicating the pedestrian individual risk tolerance, in which Gen, Group, Time and Mode are a positive correlation, while Age and Zone are a negative correlation. (3) The analysis of the natural response rate of different evacuation strategies shows that 19.81% of people evacuate immediately. The research in this paper can better protect public safety and promote the normal activities of the population.

Keywords: pre-evacuation; decision-making; escape time prediction; human heterogeneity; crowd modeling; public safety (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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