An Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Underground Engineering Fires

Qi Yuan, Hongqinq Zhu (), Xiaolei Zhang, Baozhen Zhang and Xingkai Zhang
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Qi Yuan: School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Hongqinq Zhu: School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Xiaolei Zhang: School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Baozhen Zhang: School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Xingkai Zhang: School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 24, 1-26

Abstract: Fires are one of the main disasters in underground engineering. In order to comprehensively describe and evaluate the risk of underground engineering fires, this study proposes a UEF risk assessment method based on EPB-FBN. Firstly, based on the EPB model, the static and dynamic information of the fire, such as the cause, occurrence, hazard, product, consequence, and emergency rescue, was analyzed. An EPB model of underground engineering fires was established, and the EPB model was transformed into a BN structure through the conversion rules. Secondly, a fuzzy number was used to describe the state of UEF variable nodes, and a fuzzy conditional probability table was established to describe the uncertain logical relationship between UEF nodes. In order to make full use of the expert knowledge and empirical data, the probability was divided into intervals, and a triangulated fuzzy number was used to represent the linguistic variables judged by experts. The α-weighted valuation method was used for de-fuzzification, and the exact conditional probability table parameters were obtained. Through fuzzy Bayesian inference, the key risk factors can be identified, the sensitivity value of key factors can be calculated, and the maximum risk chain can be found in the case of known evidence. Finally, the method was applied to the deductive analysis of three scenarios. The results show that the model can provide realistic analysis ideas for fire safety evaluation and emergency management of underground engineering. The proposed EPB risk assessment model provides a new perspective for the analysis of UEF accidents and contributes to the ongoing development of UEF research.

Keywords: underground engineering fire; fuzzy Bayesian network; energy and barrier theory; preliminary hazard analysis; and bow-tie diagram model; causal relationship; emergency management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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