COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Contagions Peaks in Cities from Europe and the Americas

Karine Bertin (), Johanna Garzón, Jaime San Martín and Soledad Torres
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Karine Bertin: Centro de Investigación y Modelamiento de Fenómenos Aleatorios-Valparaíso, Instituto de Ingeniería Matemática, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso 2362905, Chile
Johanna Garzón: Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá 111321, Colombia
Jaime San Martín: Centro de Modelamiento Matemático, Departamento de Ingeniería Matemática, Unité Mixte Internationale, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Universidad de Chile, Santiago 8370456, Chile
Soledad Torres: Centro de Investigación y Modelamiento de Fenómenos Aleatorios-Valparaíso, Instituto de Ingeniería Matemática, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso 2362905, Chile

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 24, 1-35

Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a group of viruses that provoke illnesses ranging from the common cold to more serious illnesses such as pneumonia. COVID-19 started in China and spread rapidly from a single city to an entire country in just 30 days and to the rest of the world in no more than 3 months. Several studies have tried to model the behavior of COVID-19 in diverse regions, based on differential equations of the SIR and stochastic SIR type, and their extensions. In this article, a statistical analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in eleven different cities in Europe and America is conducted. Log-linear models are proposed to model the rise or drop in the number of positive cases reported daily. A classification analysis of the estimated slopes is performed, allowing a comparison of the eleven cities at different epidemic peaks. By rescaling the curves, similar behaviors among rises and drops in different cities are found, independent of socioeconomic conditions, type of quarantine measures taken, whether more or less restrictive. The log-linear model appears to be suitable for modeling the incidence of COVID-19 both in rises and drops.

Keywords: COVID; cluster analysis; regression model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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