Early Detection of the Start of the Influenza Epidemic Using Surveillance Systems in Catalonia (PREVIGrip Study)

M. Rosa Dalmau Llorca, Elisabet Castro Blanco, Carina Aguilar Martín (), Noèlia Carrasco-Querol (), Zojaina Hernández Rojas, Alessandra Queiroga Gonçalves and José Fernández-Sáez
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M. Rosa Dalmau Llorca: Primary Care Intervention Evaluation Research Group (GAVINA Research Group), IDIAPJGol Terres de l’Ebre, 43500 Tortosa, Spain
Elisabet Castro Blanco: Primary Care Intervention Evaluation Research Group (GAVINA Research Group), IDIAPJGol Terres de l’Ebre, 43500 Tortosa, Spain
Carina Aguilar Martín: Primary Care Intervention Evaluation Research Group (GAVINA Research Group), IDIAPJGol Terres de l’Ebre, 43500 Tortosa, Spain
Noèlia Carrasco-Querol: Primary Care Intervention Evaluation Research Group (GAVINA Research Group), IDIAPJGol Terres de l’Ebre, 43500 Tortosa, Spain
Zojaina Hernández Rojas: Primary Care Intervention Evaluation Research Group (GAVINA Research Group), IDIAPJGol Terres de l’Ebre, 43500 Tortosa, Spain
Alessandra Queiroga Gonçalves: Primary Care Intervention Evaluation Research Group (GAVINA Research Group), IDIAPJGol Terres de l’Ebre, 43500 Tortosa, Spain
José Fernández-Sáez: Primary Care Intervention Evaluation Research Group (GAVINA Research Group), IDIAPJGol Terres de l’Ebre, 43500 Tortosa, Spain

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 24, 1-13

Abstract: Sentinel physician networks are the method of influenza surveillance recommended by the World Health Organization. Weekly clinical diagnoses based on clinical history are a surveillance method that provides more immediate information. The objective of this study is to evaluate which influenza surveillance system is capable of the earliest detection of the start of the annual influenza epidemic. We carried out an ecological time-series study based on influenza data from the population of Catalonia from the 2010–2011 to the 2018–2019 seasons. Rates of clinical diagnoses and of confirmed cases in Catalonia were used to study the changes in trends in the different surveillance systems, the differences in area and time lag between the curves of the different surveillance systems using Joinpoint regression, Simpson’s 1/3 method and cross-correlation, respectively. In general, changes in the trend of the curves were detected before the beginning of the epidemic in most seasons, using the rates for the complete seasons and the pre-epidemic rates. No time lag was observed between clinical diagnoses and the total confirmed cases. Therefore, clinical diagnoses in Primary Care could be a useful tool for early detection of the start of influenza epidemics in Catalonia.

Keywords: influenza; public health surveillance; epidemics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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