The Effect of Coronavirus 2019 Disease Control Measures on the Incidence of Respiratory Infectious Disease and Air Pollutant Concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China

Lan Wang, Kehan Wang, Hui Zhong, Na Zhao, Wangli Xu, Yunmei Yang, Yiran He and Shelan Liu
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Lan Wang: Department of Geriatrics, First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310003, China
Kehan Wang: Center for Applied Statistics, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Hui Zhong: School of Intelligent Systems Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Na Zhao: Collaborative Innovation Center of Recovery and Reconstruction of Degraded Ecosystem in Wanjiang Basin Co-Founded by Anhui Province and Ministry of Education, School of Ecology and Environment, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
Wangli Xu: Center for Applied Statistics, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Yunmei Yang: Department of Geriatrics, First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310003, China
Yiran He: Center for Applied Statistics, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Shelan Liu: Department of Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 3, 1-14

Abstract: The Yangtze River Delta is one of the top five Chinese regions affected by COVID-19, as it is adjacent to Hubei Province, where COVID-19 first emerged. We investigated the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on changes in respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) incidence and air quality in the Yangtze River Delta by constructing two proportional tests and fitting ARIMA and linear regression models. Compared with the pre-COVID-19 period, the average monthly incidence of seven RIDs decreased by 37.80% ( p < 0.001) and 37.11% ( p < 0.001) during the COVID-19 period and the post-vaccination period, respectively, in Shanghai, and decreased by 20.39% ( p < 0.001) and 22.86% ( p < 0.001), respectively, in Zhejiang. Similarly, compared with the pre-COVID-19 period, the monthly overall concentrations of six air pollutants decreased by 12.7% ( p = 0.003) and 18.79% ( p < 0.001) during the COVID-19 period and the post-vaccination period, respectively, in Shanghai, and decreased by 12.85% ( p = 0.008) and 15.26% ( p = 0.001), respectively, in Zhejiang. Interestingly, no significant difference in overall incidence of RIDs and concentrations of air quality was shown between the COVID-19 period and the post-vaccination period in either Shanghai or Zhejiang. This study provides additional evidence that the NPIs measures taken to control COVID-19 were effective in improving air quality and reducing the spread of RIDs. However, a direct causal relationship has not been established.

Keywords: respiratory infectious disease incidence; air pollutant concentrations; China; influenza; air quality; Coronavirus disease 2019 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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