Developing and Validating Risk Scores for Predicting Major Cardiovascular Events Using Population Surveys Linked with Electronic Health Insurance Records

Hsing-Yi Chang, Hsin-Ling Fang, Ching-Yu Huang, Chi-Yung Chiang, Shao-Yuan Chuang, Chih-Cheng Hsu, Hao-Min Cheng, Tzen-Wen Chen, Wei-Cheng Yao and Wen-Harn Pan
Additional contact information
Hsing-Yi Chang: Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Maoli 350401, Taiwan
Hsin-Ling Fang: Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Maoli 350401, Taiwan
Ching-Yu Huang: Health Service Division, Industrial Technology Research Institute, Hsinchu 310401, Taiwan
Chi-Yung Chiang: Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Maoli 350401, Taiwan
Shao-Yuan Chuang: Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Maoli 350401, Taiwan
Chih-Cheng Hsu: Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Maoli 350401, Taiwan
Hao-Min Cheng: Institute of Public Health, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei 112304, Taiwan
Tzen-Wen Chen: Department of Nephrology, Wei-Gong Memorial Hospital, Maoli 350401, Taiwan
Wei-Cheng Yao: Department of Pain Management, Min-Sheng General Hospital, Taoyuan 330056, Taiwan
Wen-Harn Pan: Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Maoli 350401, Taiwan

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 3, 1-11

Abstract: A risk prediction model for major cardiovascular events was developed using population survey data linked to National Health Insurance (NHI) claim data and the death registry. Another set of population survey data were used to validate the model. The model was built using the Nutrition and Health Survey in Taiwan (NAHSIT) collected from 1993–1996 and linked with 10 years of events from NHI data. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) were identified based on hospital admission or death from coronary heart disease or stroke. The Taiwanese Survey on Hypertension, Hyperglycemia, and Hyperlipidemia (TwSHHH), conducted in 2002 was used for external validation. The NAHSIT data consisted of 1658 men and 1652 women aged 35–70 years. The incidence rates for MACE per 1000 person-years were 13.77 for men and 7.76 for women. These incidence rates for the TwSHHH were 7.27 for men and 3.58 for women. The model had reasonable discrimination (C-indexes: 0.76 for men; 0.75 for women), thus can be used to predict MACE risks in the general population. NHI data can be used to identify disease statuses if the definition and algorithm are clearly defined. Precise preventive health services in Taiwan can be based on this model.

Keywords: National Health Insurance database; risk prediction; population survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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