Predicting Ovarian-Cancer Burden in Catalonia by 2030: An Age–Period–Cohort Modelling

Paula Peremiquel-Trillas, Jon Frias-Gomez, Laia Alemany, Alberto Ameijide, Mireia Vilardell, Rafael Marcos-Gragera, Sònia Paytubi, Jordi Ponce, José Manuel Martínez, Marta Pineda, Joan Brunet, Xavier Matías-Guiu, Marià Carulla, Jaume Galceran, Ángel Izquierdo, Josep M. Borràs, Laura Costas and Ramon Clèries
Additional contact information
Paula Peremiquel-Trillas: Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
Jon Frias-Gomez: Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
Laia Alemany: Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
Alberto Ameijide: Tarragona Cancer Registry, Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Service, Sant Joan de Reus University Hospital, Av. Dr. Josep Laporte 2, 43204 Reus, Spain
Mireia Vilardell: Independent Researcher, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
Rafael Marcos-Gragera: Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health-CIBERESP, Carlos III Institute of Health, Av. De Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
Sònia Paytubi: Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
Jordi Ponce: Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
José Manuel Martínez: Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
Marta Pineda: Hereditary Cancer Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
Joan Brunet: Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
Xavier Matías-Guiu: Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
Marià Carulla: Tarragona Cancer Registry, Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Service, Sant Joan de Reus University Hospital, Av. Dr. Josep Laporte 2, 43204 Reus, Spain
Jaume Galceran: Tarragona Cancer Registry, Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Service, Sant Joan de Reus University Hospital, Av. Dr. Josep Laporte 2, 43204 Reus, Spain
Ángel Izquierdo: Epidemiology Unit and Girona Cancer Registry, Oncology Coordination Plan, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Department of Health, Government of Catalonia, Av. França-Sant Ponç s/n, 17007 Girona, Spain
Josep M. Borràs: Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
Laura Costas: Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain
Ramon Clèries: Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, Av. Gran Vía 199-203, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908 Barcelona, Spain

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 3, 1-8

Abstract: Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynaecological cancer in very-high-human-development-index regions. Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates are estimated to globally rise by 2035, although incidence and mortality rates depend on the region and prevalence of the associated risk factors. The aim of this study is to assess changes in incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in Catalonia by 2030. Bayesian autoregressive age–period–cohort models were used to predict the burden of OC incidence and mortality rates for the 2015–2030 period. Incidence and mortality rates of ovarian cancer are expected to decline in Catalonia by 2030 in women ≥ 45 years of age. A decrease in ovarian-cancer risk was observed with increasing year of birth, with a rebound in women born in the 1980s. A decrease in mortality was observed for the period of diagnosis and period of death. Nevertheless, ovarian-cancer mortality remains higher among older women compared to other age groups. Our study summarizes the most plausible scenario for ovarian-cancer changes in terms of incidence and mortality in Catalonia by 2030, which may be of interest from a public health perspective for policy implementation.

Keywords: ovarian cancer; projections; burden; incidence; mortality; survival; time trends (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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