Forecasting Frequent Alcohol Use among Adolescents in HBSC Countries: A Bayesian Framework for Making Predictions

Lorena Charrier, Michela Bersia, Alessio Vieno, Rosanna Irene Comoretto, Mindaugas Štelemėkas, Paola Nardone, Tibor Baška, Paola Dalmasso and Paola Berchialla
Additional contact information
Lorena Charrier: Department of Public Health and Pediatrics, University of Torino, 10126 Torino, Italy
Michela Bersia: Department of Public Health and Pediatrics, University of Torino, 10126 Torino, Italy
Alessio Vieno: Department of Developmental and Social Psychology, University of Padova, 35131 Padova, Italy
Rosanna Irene Comoretto: Department of Public Health and Pediatrics, University of Torino, 10126 Torino, Italy
Mindaugas Štelemėkas: Health Research Institute, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 47181 Kaunas, Lithuania
Paola Nardone: National Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Italian National Institute of Health, 00161 Rome, Italy
Tibor Baška: Department of Public Health, Jessenius Faculty of Medicine in Martin, Comenius University in Bratislava, 036 01 Martin, Slovakia
Paola Dalmasso: Department of Public Health and Pediatrics, University of Torino, 10126 Torino, Italy
Paola Berchialla: Department of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Torino, 10043 Orbassano, Italy

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 5, 1-14

Abstract: (1) Aim: To summarize alcohol trends in the last 30 years (1985/6–2017/8) among 15-year-olds in Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) countries (overall sample size: 413,399 adolescents; 51.55% girls) and to forecast the potential evolution in the upcoming 2021/22 HBSC survey. (2) Methods: Using 1986–2018 prevalence data on weekly alcohol consumption among 15-year-olds related to 40 HBSC countries/regions, a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model was adopted to estimate trends making a clusterization of the countries, and to give estimates for the 2022 HBSC survey. (3) Results: An overall declining trend in alcohol consumption was observed over time in almost all the countries. However, compared to 2014, some countries showed a new increase in 2018 and 2021/22 estimates forecast a slight increase in the majority of countries, pointing out a potential bounce after a decreasing period in frequent drinking habits. (4) Conclusions: The clusterization suggested a homogenization of consumption habits among HBSC countries. The comparison between 2022 observed and expected data could be helpful to investigate the effect of risk behaviour determinants, including the pandemic impact, occurring between the last two waves of the survey.

Keywords: adolescents; alcohol; drinking; risk behaviour; trend; forecast; Bayesian longitudinal model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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