Assessing Trade-Offs and Optimal Ranges of Density for Life Expectancy and 12 Causes of Mortality in Metro Vancouver, Canada, 1990–2016

Jessica Yu, Paul Gustafson, Martino Tran and Michael Brauer
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Jessica Yu: School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, 2206 E Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada
Paul Gustafson: Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, 3182 Earth Sciences Building, 2207 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
Martino Tran: School of Community and Regional Planning, University of British Columbia, 433-6333 Memorial Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada
Michael Brauer: School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, 2206 E Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 5, 1-17

Abstract: Background: Understanding and managing the impacts of population growth and densification are important steps for sustainable development. This study sought to evaluate the health trade-offs associated with increasing densification and to identify the optimal balance of neighbourhood densification for health. Methods: We linked population density with a 27-year mortality dataset in Metro Vancouver that includes census-tract levels of life expectancy (LE), cause-specific mortalities, and area-level deprivation. We applied two methods: (1) difference-in-differences (DID) models to study the impacts of densification changes from the early 1990s on changes in mortality over a 27-year period; and (2) smoothed cubic splines to identify thresholds of densification at which mortality rates accelerated. Results: At densities above ~9400 persons per km 2 , LE began to decrease more rapidly. By cause, densification was linked to decreased mortality for major causes of mortality in the region, such as cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and diabetes. Greater inequality with increasing density was observed for causes such as human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS), sexually transmitted infections, and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Conclusions: Areas with higher population densities generally have lower rates of mortality from the major causes, but these environments are also associated with higher relative inequality from largely preventable causes of death.

Keywords: density; mortality; urban planning; life expectancy; cause-specific mortality; urban health; growth management; population growth; difference-in-differences; cubic splines (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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