Can El Niño–Southern Oscillation Increase Respiratory Infectious Diseases in China? An Empirical Study of 31 Provinces

Qingyun Tang, Ke Gong, Li Xiong, Yuanxiang Dong and Wei Xu
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Qingyun Tang: School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China
Ke Gong: School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China
Li Xiong: School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China
Yuanxiang Dong: School of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030006, China
Wei Xu: School of Business, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 5, 1-17

Abstract: Respiratory infectious diseases (RID) are the major form of infectious diseases in China, and are highly susceptible to climatic conditions. Current research mainly focuses on the impact of weather on RID, but there is a lack of research on the effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on RID. Therefore, this paper uses the system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) and the data of 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2018 to construct a dynamic panel model to empirically test the causality between ENSO and RID morbidity. Moreover, this paper considers the moderating effects of per capita disposable income and average years of education on this causality. The results show that ENSO can positively and significantly impact RID morbidity, which is 5.842% higher during El Niño years than normal years. In addition, per capita disposable income and average years of education can effectively weaken the relationship between ENSO and RID morbidity. Thus, this paper is of great significance for improving the RID early climate warning system in China and effectively controlling the spread of RID.

Keywords: respiratory infectious diseases; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; climate change; per capita disposable income; average years of education (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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