Geo-Climatic Factors of Malaria Morbidity in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2001 to 2019

Eric Kalunda Panzi, Léon Ngongo Okenge, Eugénie Hamuli Kabali, Félicien Tshimungu, Angèle Keti Dilu, Felix Mulangu and Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala
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Eric Kalunda Panzi: Département de la Santé Communautaire, Institut Supérieur des Techniques Médicales de Kinshasa, B.P. 774, Kinshasa XI, Mont Ngafula, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Léon Ngongo Okenge: Département de la Santé Communautaire, Institut Supérieur des Techniques Médicales de Kinshasa, B.P. 774, Kinshasa XI, Mont Ngafula, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Eugénie Hamuli Kabali: Département de la Santé Communautaire, Institut Supérieur des Techniques Médicales de Kinshasa, B.P. 774, Kinshasa XI, Mont Ngafula, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Félicien Tshimungu: Département de la Santé Communautaire, Institut Supérieur des Techniques Médicales de Kinshasa, B.P. 774, Kinshasa XI, Mont Ngafula, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Angèle Keti Dilu: Ministère de la Santé, Secrétariat Général /Cellule Suivi et Evaluation, 36 Avenue de la Justice Gombe, B.P. 3088, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Felix Mulangu: Ministère de la Santé Publique, Direction de la Surveillance Epidémiologique, 36 Avenue de la Justice Gombe, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala: Département de la Santé Communautaire, Institut Supérieur des Techniques Médicales de Kinshasa, B.P. 774, Kinshasa XI, Mont Ngafula, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 7, 1-16

Abstract: Background: Environmentally related morbidity and mortality still remain high worldwide, although they have decreased significantly in recent decades. This study aims to forecast malaria epidemics taking into account climatic and spatio-temporal variations and therefore identify geo-climatic factors predictive of malaria prevalence from 2001 to 2019 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Methods: This is a retrospective longitudinal ecological study. The database of the Directorate of Epidemiological Surveillance including all malaria cases registered in the surveillance system based on positive blood test results, either by microscopy or by a rapid diagnostic test for malaria was used to estimate malaria morbidity and mortality by province of the DRC from 2001 to 2019. The impact of climatic factors on malaria morbidity was modeled using the Generalized Poisson Regression, a predictive model with the dependent variable Y the count of the number of occurrences of malaria cases during a period of time adjusting for risk factors. Results: Our results show that the average prevalence rate of malaria in the last 19 years is 13,246 (1,178,383–1,417,483) cases per 100,000 people at risk. This prevalence increases significantly during the whole study period ( p < 0.0001). The year 2002 was the most morbid with 2,913,799 (120,9451–3,830,456) cases per 100,000 persons at risk. Adjusting for other factors, a one-day in rainfall resulted in a 7% statistically significant increase in malaria cases ( p < 0.0001). Malaria morbidity was also significantly associated with geographic location (western, central and northeastern region of the country), total evaporation under shelter, maximum daily temperature at a two-meter altitude and malaria morbidity ( p < 0.0001). Conclusions: In this study, we have established the association between malaria morbidity and geo-climatic predictors such as geographical location, total evaporation under shelter and maximum daily temperature at a two-meter altitude. We show that the average number of malaria cases increased positively as a function of the average number of rainy days, the total quantity of rainfall and the average daily temperature. These findings are important building blocks to help the government of DRC to set up a warning system integrating the monitoring of rainfall and temperature trends and the early detection of anomalies in weather patterns in order to forecast potential large malaria morbidity events.

Keywords: poisson generalized linear model; malaria cases; morbidity; geo-climatic factors; DRC (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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