COVID-19 in Malaysia: Descriptive Epidemiologic Characteristics of the First Wave

Sumarni Mohd Ghazali, Sarbhan Singh, Asrul Anuar Zulkifli, Yoon Ling Cheong, Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus, Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri, Nadhar Ahmad Jaafar, Chee Herng Lai, Wan Noraini Wan Mohamed Noor, Norhayati Rusli, Chee Kheong Chong, Tahir Aris, Hishamshah Mohd Ibrahim, Sarat Chandra Dass and Balvinder Singh Gill
Additional contact information
Sumarni Mohd Ghazali: Institute for Medical Research, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam 40170, Malaysia
Sarbhan Singh: Institute for Medical Research, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam 40170, Malaysia
Asrul Anuar Zulkifli: Institute for Medical Research, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam 40170, Malaysia
Yoon Ling Cheong: Institute for Medical Research, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam 40170, Malaysia
Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus: Institute for Medical Research, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam 40170, Malaysia
Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri: Institute for Medical Research, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam 40170, Malaysia
Nadhar Ahmad Jaafar: Institute for Medical Research, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam 40170, Malaysia
Chee Herng Lai: Institute for Medical Research, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam 40170, Malaysia
Wan Noraini Wan Mohamed Noor: Ministry of Health, Putrajaya 62590, Malaysia
Norhayati Rusli: Ministry of Health, Putrajaya 62590, Malaysia
Chee Kheong Chong: Ministry of Health, Putrajaya 62590, Malaysia
Tahir Aris: Institute for Medical Research, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam 40170, Malaysia
Hishamshah Mohd Ibrahim: Ministry of Health, Putrajaya 62590, Malaysia
Sarat Chandra Dass: School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Putrajaya 62200, Malaysia
Balvinder Singh Gill: Institute for Medical Research, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam 40170, Malaysia

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 7, 1-14

Abstract: This study aimed to describe the characteristics of COVID-19 cases and close contacts during the first wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia (23 January 2020 to 26 February 2020), and to analyse the reasons why the outbreak did not continue to spread and lessons that can be learnt from this experience. Characteristics of the cases and close contacts, spatial spread, epidemiological link, and timeline of the cases were examined. An extended SEIR model was developed using several parameters such as the average number of contacts per day per case, the proportion of close contact traced per day and the mean daily rate at which infectious cases are isolated to determine the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) and trajectory of cases. During the first wave, a total of 22 cases with 368 close contacts were traced, identified, tested, quarantine and isolated. Due to the effective and robust outbreak control measures put in place such as early case detection, active screening, extensive contact tracing, testing and prompt isolation/quarantine, the outbreak was successfully contained and controlled. The SEIR model estimated the R 0 at 0.9 which further supports the decreasing disease dynamics and early termination of the outbreak. As a result, there was a 11-day gap (free of cases) between the first and second wave which indicates that the first wave was not linked to the second wave.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology; disease transmission; first wave (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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