Exploring Health Trends Prior to State Pension Age for The Netherlands up to 2040

Maaike van der Noordt, Johan J. Polder, Marjanne H. D. Plasmans, Henk B. M. Hilderink, Dorly J. H. Deeg, Theo G. van Tilburg, Suzan van der Pas and Fons van der Lucht
Additional contact information
Maaike van der Noordt: Department of Health Knowledge Integration, Center for Health and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Johan J. Polder: Department of Health Knowledge Integration, Center for Health and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Marjanne H. D. Plasmans: Department of Health Knowledge Integration, Center for Health and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Henk B. M. Hilderink: Department of Health Knowledge Integration, Center for Health and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Dorly J. H. Deeg: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Theo G. van Tilburg: Department of Sociology, Faculty of Social Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Suzan van der Pas: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Fons van der Lucht: Department of Health Knowledge Integration, Center for Health and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 7, 1-13

Abstract: Background: In many Western countries, the state pension age is being raised to stimulate the extension of working lives. It is not yet well understood whether the health of older adults supports this increase. In this study, future health of Dutch adults aged 60 to 68 (i.e., the expected state pension age) is explored up to 2040. Methods: Data are from the Dutch Health Interview Survey 1990–2017 (N ≈ 10,000 yearly) and the Dutch Public Health Monitor 2016 (N = 205,151). Health is operationalized using combined scores of self-reported health and limitations in mobility, hearing or seeing. Categories are: good, moderate and poor health. Based on historical health trends, two scenarios are explored: a stable health trend (neither improving nor declining) and an improving health trend. Results: In 2040, the health distribution among men aged 60–68 is estimated to be 63–71% in good, 17–28% in moderate and 9–12% in poor health. Among women, this is estimated to be 64–69%, 17–24% and 12–14%, respectively. Conclusions: This study’s explorations suggest that a substantial share of people will be in moderate or poor health and, thus, may have difficulty continuing working. Policy aiming at sustainable employability will, therefore, remain important, even in the case of the most favorable scenario.

Keywords: extension of working lives; self-rated health; functional limitations; forecasting health (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/7/4209/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/7/4209/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:7:p:4209-:d:785193

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().