Spatialization and Prediction of Seasonal NO 2 Pollution Due to Climate Change in the Korean Capital Area through Land Use Regression Modeling

No Ol Lim, Jinhoo Hwang, Sung-Joo Lee, Youngjae Yoo, Yuyoung Choi and Seongwoo Jeon
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No Ol Lim: Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea
Jinhoo Hwang: Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea
Sung-Joo Lee: Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea
Youngjae Yoo: Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea
Yuyoung Choi: Ojeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea
Seongwoo Jeon: Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 9, 1-17

Abstract: Urbanization is causing an increase in air pollution leading to serious health issues. However, even though the necessity of its regulation is acknowledged, there are relatively few monitoring sites in the capital metropolitan city of the Republic of Korea. Furthermore, a significant relationship between air pollution and climate variables is expected, thus the prediction of air pollution under climate change should be carefully attended. This study aims to predict and spatialize present and future NO 2 distribution by using existing monitoring sites to overcome deficiency in monitoring. Prediction was conducted through seasonal Land use regression modeling using variables correlated with NO 2 concentration. Variables were selected through two correlation analyses and future pollution was predicted under HadGEM-AO RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Our results showed a relatively high NO 2 concentration in winter in both present and future predictions, resulting from elevated use of fossil fuels in boilers, and also showed increments of NO 2 pollution due to climate change. The results of this study could strengthen existing air pollution management strategies and mitigation measures for planning concerning future climate change, supporting proper management and control of air pollution.

Keywords: air pollution; land usage; spatial prediction; future scenarios; pollution management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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