Temporal Validation of Chiang Mai University Intussusception Failed Reduction Score (CMUI)

Jiraporn Khorana, Chanathip Sayuen, Sutinee Chanaturakarnnon, Butsarin Nate-anong, Jesda Singhavejsakul, Kanokkan Tepmalai, Sireekarn Chantakhow and Wilai Sathavornvichit
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Jiraporn Khorana: Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Chanathip Sayuen: Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Sutinee Chanaturakarnnon: Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Butsarin Nate-anong: Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Jesda Singhavejsakul: Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Kanokkan Tepmalai: Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Sireekarn Chantakhow: Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Wilai Sathavornvichit: Pediatric Nursing Section, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 9, 1-14

Abstract: This study aimed to validate the “Chiang Mai University Intussusception Failed Score (CMUI)” for intussusception non-operative reduction. Both a 2-year retrospective and a 5-year prospective consecutive review of patients with intussusception were conducted. Data were collected from January 2013 to December 2020. Related retrospective data of a developmental set from two centers from January 2006 to December 2012 were used. Ten prespecified prognostic factors for failed reduction were collected and from these a predictive score was calculated. The actual results of non-operative reduction were collected and set as a reference standard. Altogether, 195 episodes of intussusception were found. Twenty-two patients were excluded due to contraindications; therefore, a total of 173 episodes were included in the validation dataset. The development data set comprised 170 episodes. We found that no statistical significance was found from comparing the areas under the ROC of two datasets ( p -value = 0.31), while specificity of the validation set was 93.8% (88.1–97.3). This temporal validation showed a high specificity and a high affinity for prediction of failed reduction as the development dataset despite being in an era of a higher successful reduction rate. The intensive reduction protocols might be introduced among patients with high-risk scores.

Keywords: intussusception; nonoperative reduction; predictor score; pediatric (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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