The Association between Apparent Temperature and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Disease in Limpopo Province, South Africa

Jacqueline Lisa Bühler, Shreya Shrikhande, Thandi Kapwata, Guéladio Cissé, Yajun Liang, Hugo Pedder, Marek Kwiatkowski, Zamantimande Kunene, Angela Mathee, Nasheeta Peer and Caradee Y. Wright ()
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Jacqueline Lisa Bühler: Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
Shreya Shrikhande: Epidemiology and Public Health Department, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
Thandi Kapwata: Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2094, South Africa
Guéladio Cissé: Epidemiology and Public Health Department, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
Yajun Liang: Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
Hugo Pedder: Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 2PS, UK
Marek Kwiatkowski: Epidemiology and Public Health Department, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
Zamantimande Kunene: Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2094, South Africa
Angela Mathee: Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2094, South Africa
Nasheeta Peer: Non-Communicable Diseases Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Durban 4091, South Africa
Caradee Y. Wright: Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 20, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have a high disease burden both globally and in South Africa. They have also been found to be temperature-sensitive globally. The association between temperature and CVD morbidity has previously been demonstrated, but little is known about it in South Africa. It is important to understand how changes in temperature in South Africa will affect CVD morbidity, especially in rural regions, to inform public health interventions and adaptation strategies. This study aimed to determine the short-term effect of apparent temperature (T app ) on CVD hospital admissions in Mopani District, Limpopo province, South Africa. A total of 3124 CVD hospital admissions records were obtained from two hospitals from 1 June 2009 to 31 December 2016. Daily T app was calculated using nearby weather station measurements. The association was modelled using a distributed lag non-linear model with a negative binomial regression over a 21-day lag period. The fraction of morbidity attributable to non-optimal T app , i.e., cold (6–25 °C) and warm (27–32 °C) T app was reported. We found an increase in the proportion of admissions due to CVDs for warm and cold T app cumulatively over 21 days. Increasing CVD admissions due to warm T app appeared immediately and lasted for two to four days, whereas the lag-structure for the cold effect was inconsistent. A proportion of 8.5% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.1%, 13.7%) and 1.1% (95% CI: −1.4%, 3.5%) of the total CVD admissions was attributable to cold and warm temperatures, respectively. Warm and cold T app may increase CVD admissions, suggesting that the healthcare system and community need to be prepared in the context of global temperature changes.

Keywords: climate change; cardiovascular diseases; apparent temperature; distributed lag non-linear model; rural setting; South Africa; time-series analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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