Quantifying Social Interventions for Combating COVID-19 via a Symmetry-Based Model

Lei Zhang, Guang-Hui She, Yu-Rong She, Rong Li () and Zhen-Su She ()
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Lei Zhang: Institute of Health Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Guang-Hui She: Institute of Health Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Yu-Rong She: Institute of Health Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Rong Li: Institute of Health Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Zhen-Su She: Institute of Health Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 20, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed new features in terms of substantial changes in rates of infection, cure, and death as a result of social interventions, which significantly challenges traditional SEIR-type models. In this paper we developed a symmetry-based model for quantifying social interventions for combating COVID-19. We found that three key order parameters, separating degree ( S ) for susceptible populations, healing degree ( H ) for mild cases, and rescuing degree ( R ) for severe cases, all display logistic dynamics, establishing a novel dynamic model named SHR . Furthermore, we discovered two evolutionary patterns of healing degree with a universal power law in 23 areas in the first wave. Remarkably, the model yielded a quantitative evaluation of the dynamic back-to-zero policy in the third wave in Beijing using 12 datasets of different sizes. In conclusion, the SHR model constitutes a rational basis by which we can understand this complex epidemic and policymakers can carry out sustainable anti-epidemic measures to minimize its impact.

Keywords: symmetry analysis; order parameters; logistic dynamics; SHR dynamical model; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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