Short-Term Effects of Climate Variability on Childhood Diarrhoea in Bangladesh: Multi-Site Time-Series Regression Analysis

Md Rezanur Rahaman (), Keith Dear, Syed M. Satter, Michael Tong, Adriana Milazzo, Helen Marshall, Blesson M. Varghese, Mahmudur Rahman and Peng Bi ()
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Md Rezanur Rahaman: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Keith Dear: School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
Syed M. Satter: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
Michael Tong: School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
Adriana Milazzo: School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
Helen Marshall: Adelaide Medical School and Robinson Research Institute, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
Blesson M. Varghese: School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
Mahmudur Rahman: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
Peng Bi: School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 13, 1-15

Abstract: The aim of this study was to estimate the effects of climate on childhood diarrhoea hospitalisations across six administrative divisions in Bangladesh and to provide scientific evidence for local health authorities for disease control and prevention. Fortnightly hospital admissions (August/2013–June/2017) for diarrhoea in children under five years of age, and fortnightly average maximum temperature, relative humidity and rainfall recordings for six administrative divisions were modelled using negative binomial regression with distributed lag linear terms. Flexible spline functions were used to adjust models for seasonality and long-term trends. During the study period, 25,385 diarrhoea cases were hospitalised. Overall, each 1 °C rise in maximum temperature increased diarrhoea hospitalisations by 4.6% (IRR = 1.046; 95% CI, 1.007–1.088) after adjusting for seasonality and long-term trends in the unlagged model. Using lagged effects of maximum temperature, and adjusting for relative humidity and rainfall for each of the six administrative divisions, the relationship between maximum temperature and diarrhoea hospitalisations varied between divisions, with positive and negative effect estimates. The temperature-diarrhoea association may be confounded by seasonality and long-term trends. Our findings are a reminder that the effects of climate change may be heterogeneous across regions, and that tailored diarrhoea prevention strategies need to consider region-specific recommendations rather than relying on generic guidelines.

Keywords: Bangladesh; children; climate; diarrhoea; maximum temperature; time-series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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